ACC · 2026 season, in progress

Pittsburgh Panthers: luck and expected wins

Pittsburgh is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 23rd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Pittsburgh wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Miami (OH)	W 59–14	96%	+4
Week 2	vs UCF	W 12–7	58%	+42
Week 3	vs Syracuse	W 27–13	88%	+12
Week 4	vs Bucknell	W 59–0	100%	0

Wk 1 +4 vs M-OH

Wk 2 +42 vs UCF

Wk 3 +12 vs SYR

Wk 4 0 vs BUCK

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Pittsburgh win chance
Week 5 · Oct 2	at Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh by 6.0	65%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs North Carolina	Pittsburgh by 14.9	82%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Boston College	Pittsburgh by 18.2	87%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Miami	Miami by 13.5	21%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh by 15.2	82%
Week 11 · Nov 13	vs Florida State	Pittsburgh by 11.7	76%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Louisville	Louisville by 0.4	49%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at California	Pittsburgh by 13.9	79%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Pittsburgh’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.10	+7.3
Kicks	+0.05	+9.5
Fumble bounces	−0.02	−3.2

Luckiest wins

Wins Pittsburgh takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 8	@ Syracuse	W 30–13	43%	+57
2026 Week 2	vs UCF	W 12–7	58%	+42
2025 Week 7	@ Florida State	W 34–31	66%	+34
2025 Week 9	vs NC State	W 53–34	78%	+22
2025 Week 13	@ Georgia Tech	W 42–28	80%	+20

Unluckiest losses

Losses Pittsburgh would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 5	vs Louisville	L 27–34	89%	−89
2025 Go Bowling Military Bowl	vs East Carolina	L 17–23	81%	−81
2025 Week 12	vs Notre Dame	L 15–37	15%	−15
2025 Week 3	@ West Virginia	L 24–31	8%	−8
2025 Week 14	vs Miami	L 7–38	2%	−2

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–4	7.6	+0.4	1–2	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Duquesne	W 61–9	100%	0
Week 2	vs Central Michigan	W 45–17	100%	0
Week 3	@ West Virginia	L 24–31	8%	−8
Week 5	vs Louisville	L 27–34	89%	−89
Week 6	vs Boston College	W 48–7	99%	+1
Week 7	@ Florida State	W 34–31	66%	+34
Week 8	@ Syracuse	W 30–13	43%	+57
Week 9	vs NC State	W 53–34	78%	+22
Week 10	@ Stanford	W 35–20	83%	+17
Week 12	vs Notre Dame	L 15–37	15%	−15
Week 13	@ Georgia Tech	W 42–28	80%	+20
Week 14	vs Miami	L 7–38	2%	−2
Go Bowling Military Bowl	vs East Carolina	L 17–23	81%	−81