luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Bucknell at Pittsburgh, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Pittsburgh beat Bucknell 59–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Pittsburgh wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 100% favorite.

Final

Bucknell Bison 0
Pittsburgh Panthers 59

September 26, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Pittsburgh −54.5

Luck index 0 Pittsburgh about even · 0 Bucknell

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bucknell wins 0, Pittsburgh wins 10.

  1. 1 BUCK 17 PITT 33
  2. 2 BUCK 7 PITT 31
  3. 3 BUCK 6 PITT 35
  4. 4 BUCK 10 PITT 44
  5. 5 BUCK 0 PITT 36
  6. 6 BUCK 3 PITT 43
  7. 7 BUCK 7 PITT 52
  8. 8 BUCK 3 PITT 51
  9. 9 BUCK 7 PITT 59
  10. 10 BUCK 3 PITT 66

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bucknell wins 0% of them, Pittsburgh 100%. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 59.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bucknell by 17+0.0%
Bucknell by 9–160.0%
Bucknell by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Pittsburgh by 1–81.1%
Pittsburgh by 9–162.1%
Pittsburgh by 17+96.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to Pittsburgh: the final margin was Pittsburgh by 59, without the luck Pittsburgh by 52.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Garanton, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
  • A. Chadha, 24 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bucknell 6 for 48 yards, Pittsburgh 16 for 165 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:35 False Start on Bucknell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +0.9 pts
Q1 10:49 False Start on Bucknell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +0.8 pts
Q1 10:02 Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards 0% BUCK +3.0 pts
Q1 9:59 Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUCK +2.5 pts
Q1 9:30 Face Mask on Pittsburgh, 15 yards 0% BUCK +1.0 pts
Q1 9:12 Holding on Bucknell, 10 yards 0% PITT +0.6 pts
Q1 4:05 Roughing the Passer on Bucknell, 8 yards 0% PITT +1.2 pts
Q1 2:06 Roughing the Passer on Pittsburgh, 15 yards 0% BUCK +1.9 pts
Q1 0:39 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards 0% BUCK +2.4 pts
Q2 12:36 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards 0% BUCK +0.9 pts
Q2 1:50 False Start on Bucknell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +0.2 pts
Q2 1:41 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards 0% BUCK +0.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards 0% BUCK +0.6 pts
Q3 10:43 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards 0% BUCK +1.4 pts
Q3 8:02 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards 0% BUCK +0.6 pts
Q3 5:43 False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUCK +1.2 pts
Q3 5:15 Delay of Game on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUCK +0.3 pts
Q3 1:28 False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUCK +0.5 pts
Q3 1:27 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% BUCK +1.3 pts
Q3 0:51 Face Mask on Bucknell, 15 yards 0% PITT +1.6 pts
Q4 13:20 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Pittsburgh, 15 yards 0% BUCK +0.9 pts
Q4 6:40 Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards 0% BUCK +0.8 pts

When it happened

Pittsburgh’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Pittsburgh was ahead in it, below while Bucknell was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:03 Bucknell was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +0% PITT BUCK: Punt
2 Q1 12:44 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:49 Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown
4 Q1 11:26 Pittsburgh converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown
5 Q1 9:12 Holding on Bucknell, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown
6 Q1 7:24 Bucknell was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% PITT BUCK: Punt
7 Q1 6:02 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown
8 Q1 2:52 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bucknell 0% · Pittsburgh 100%

Final margin
Pittsburgh by 59
Luck in points
6.3 for Pittsburgh
Luck-adjusted margin
Pittsburgh by 52.7
Replay with same day's form
Bucknell 0% · Pittsburgh 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Bucknell · Pittsburgh

More from Week 4 2026

Every week 4 game, 2026