luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Georgia Tech at Stanford, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Stanford beat Georgia Tech 34–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Stanford wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Stanford.

Before kickoff Georgia Tech was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:04 left): Stanford converted 4th & 10, worth 18 points of win probability to Stanford.

Final

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 27
Stanford Cardinal 34

September 26, 2026 · Stanford Stadium · Closing line: Georgia Tech −3

Luck index +41 Stanford lucky · −41 Georgia Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Georgia Tech wins 4, Stanford wins 6.

  1. 1 GT 29 STAN 6
  2. 2 GT 27 STAN 14
  3. 3 GT 23 STAN 16
  4. 4 GT 10 STAN 7
  5. 5 GT 17 STAN 20
  6. 6 GT 24 STAN 30
  7. 7 GT 14 STAN 23
  8. 8 GT 28 STAN 40
  9. 9 GT 14 STAN 30
  10. 10 GT 7 STAN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Georgia Tech wins 41% of them, Stanford 59%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Stanford by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Georgia Tech by 17+9.8%
Georgia Tech by 9–1612.1%
Georgia Tech by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.1%
Stanford by 1–823.2%
Stanford by 9–1617.4%
Stanford by 17+16.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to Stanford: the final margin was Stanford by 7, without the luck Stanford by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Birr, 33 yds made · 83% expected
  • A. Birr, 23 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. Kenney, 29 yds made · 88% expected
  • E. Kenney, 24 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Georgia Tech 12 for 106 yards, Stanford 8 for 84 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:26 Offside on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GT +0.9 pts
Q1 7:09 Roughing the Passer on Georgia Tech, 15 yards +9% STAN +4.4 pts
Q1 3:17 False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +14% GT +0.7 pts
Q2 9:04 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards +3% STAN +1.6 pts
Q2 7:54 Holding on Stanford, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% GT +2.9 pts
Q2 5:05 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards +2% STAN +0.9 pts
Q2 4:25 Pass Interference on Stanford, 9 yards +4% GT +1.5 pts
Q2 4:17 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards +1% STAN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:31 Holding on Stanford, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% GT +2.3 pts
Q2 0:14 Intentional Grounding on Stanford, 10 yards 0% GT +0.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Face Mask on Stanford, 15 yards +3% GT +1.6 pts
Q3 12:24 Pass Interference on Stanford, 10 yards +6% GT +3.0 pts
Q3 10:19 Personal Foul on Stanford, 15 yards +3% GT +1.6 pts
Q3 10:05 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards +1% STAN +0.6 pts
Q3 9:49 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards +2% STAN +0.8 pts
Q4 14:57 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards +4% STAN +1.4 pts
Q4 14:41 False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% STAN +0.4 pts
Q4 12:39 Roughing the Passer on Georgia Tech, 11 yards +2% STAN +1.0 pts
Q4 10:01 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards +1% STAN +0.5 pts
Q4 0:59 Intentional Grounding on Georgia Tech, 0 yards 0% STAN 0.0 pts

When it happened

Stanford’s chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Stanford was ahead in it, below while Georgia Tech was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:09 Roughing the Passer on Georgia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% STAN STAN: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:17 False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +14% GT STAN: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 7:54 Holding on Stanford, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% GT GT: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:47 Stanford converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% STAN STAN: Field goal
5 Q3 10:32 E. Kenney made a 24-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +8% GT STAN: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:04 Stanford converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +18% STAN STAN: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:01 Georgia Tech was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +9% STAN GT: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:49 Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +9% GT GT: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Georgia Tech 31% · Stanford 69%

Final margin
Stanford by 7
Luck in points
4.1 for Stanford
Luck-adjusted margin
Stanford by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Georgia Tech 41% · Stanford 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Georgia Tech · Stanford

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