luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Central Michigan at Miami, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Miami beat Central Michigan 52–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Miami was a 100% favorite.

Final

Central Michigan Chippewas 3
Miami Hurricanes 52

September 26, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Miami −41.5

Luck index 0 Miami about even · 0 Central Michigan

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 0, Miami wins 10.

  1. 1 CMU 11 MIA 35
  2. 2 CMU 9 MIA 44
  3. 3 CMU 0 MIA 38
  4. 4 CMU 0 MIA 41
  5. 5 CMU 3 MIA 48
  6. 6 CMU 0 MIA 48
  7. 7 CMU 0 MIA 51
  8. 8 CMU 0 MIA 55
  9. 9 CMU 7 MIA 65
  10. 10 CMU 0 MIA 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Central Michigan wins 0% of them, Miami 100%. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Central Michigan by 17+0.0%
Central Michigan by 9–160.0%
Central Michigan by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Miami by 1–80.6%
Miami by 9–162.2%
Miami by 17+97.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to Miami: the final margin was Miami by 49, without the luck Miami by 44.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. VanHuis, 49 yds made · 55% expected
  • J. Weinberg, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Central Michigan 6 for 36 yards, Miami 13 for 107 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:07 False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.8 pts
Q1 12:57 False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.3 pts
Q1 8:07 Roughing the Passer on Miami, 15 yards 0% CMU +1.6 pts
Q1 3:06 Illegal Formation on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.9 pts
Q1 2:20 Block Below the Waist on Central Michigan, 5 yards 0% MIA +1.0 pts
Q2 13:08 Delay of Game on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.4 pts
Q2 11:12 False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.8 pts
Q2 9:43 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards 0% MIA +1.0 pts
Q2 1:36 Holding on Miami, 3 yards 0% CMU +0.2 pts
Q2 0:54 Holding on Miami, 10 yards 0% CMU +1.3 pts
Q2 0:46 Holding on Miami, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CMU +2.2 pts
Q2 0:36 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards 0% MIA 0.0 pts
Q2 0:19 False Start on Miami, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Shift on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +1.5 pts
Q3 9:42 Personal Foul on Miami, 15 yards 0% CMU +0.9 pts
Q3 8:14 Pass Interference on Miami, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CMU +2.6 pts
Q3 6:08 Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 1 yard 0% MIA +0.3 pts
Q4 14:19 Face Mask on Miami, 15 yards 0% CMU +0.9 pts
Q4 1:16 False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.5 pts

When it happened

Miami’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Miami was ahead in it, below while Central Michigan was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 Miami converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 9:54 Central Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +0% CMU CMU: Field goal
3 Q1 8:40 Central Michigan converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +0% CMU CMU: Field goal
4 Q1 8:07 Roughing the Passer on Miami, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% CMU CMU: Field goal
5 Q1 6:30 Central Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +0% MIA CMU: Field goal
6 Q1 5:56 C. VanHuis made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +0% CMU CMU: Punt
7 Q1 3:06 Illegal Formation on Miami, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% CMU CMU: Punt
8 Q1 2:20 Block Below the Waist on Central Michigan, 5 yardsJudgment calls +0% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Central Michigan 0% · Miami 100%

Final margin
Miami by 49
Luck in points
4.6 for Miami
Luck-adjusted margin
Miami by 44.4
Replay with same day's form
Central Michigan 0% · Miami 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Central Michigan · Miami

More from Week 4 2026

Every week 4 game, 2026