luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Robert Morris at Buffalo, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Buffalo beat Robert Morris 31–28, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Buffalo was a 96% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:34 left): Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to Robert Morris.

Final

Robert Morris Colonials 28
Buffalo Bulls 31

September 26, 2026 · UB Stadium · Closing line: Buffalo −27.5

Luck index +37 Buffalo lucky · −37 Robert Morris

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Robert Morris wins 4, Buffalo wins 6.

  1. 1 RMU 37 BUF 16
  2. 2 RMU 28 BUF 17
  3. 3 RMU 20 BUF 13
  4. 4 RMU 13 BUF 10
  5. 5 RMU 21 BUF 24
  6. 6 RMU 23 BUF 28
  7. 7 RMU 14 BUF 23
  8. 8 RMU 7 BUF 20
  9. 9 RMU 16 BUF 34
  10. 10 RMU 14 BUF 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Robert Morris wins 37% of them, Buffalo 63%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buffalo by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Robert Morris by 17+7.2%
Robert Morris by 9–169.8%
Robert Morris by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation4.9%
Buffalo by 1–821.9%
Buffalo by 9–1617.9%
Buffalo by 17+21.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to Buffalo: the final margin was Buffalo by 3, without the luck Robert Morris by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • O. Hautanen, 35 yds missed · 82% expected
  • O. Hautanen, 40 yds missed · 73% expected
  • O. Hautanen, 48 yds made · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Robert Morris 10 for 56 yards, Buffalo 5 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:16 Delay of Game on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.7 pts
Q1 11:13 False Start on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +1.0 pts
Q1 8:43 Offside on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +1.0 pts
Q1 5:22 Offside on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +2.7 pts
Q2 10:59 Holding on Robert Morris, 10 yards +1% BUF +1.3 pts
Q2 10:08 Personal Foul on Robert Morris, 6 yards +1% BUF +1.1 pts
Q2 4:32 Personal Foul on Buffalo, 15 yards +3% RMU +1.6 pts
Q2 3:20 False Start on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q2 1:55 Offside on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 7:16 Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards +2% RMU +2.7 pts
Q3 2:05 Face Mask on Buffalo, 15 yards +1% RMU +1.4 pts
Q4 13:15 Offside on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 13:00 Illegal Formation on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% RMU +1.1 pts
Q4 9:18 Offside on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q4 2:32 Face Mask on Buffalo, 15 yards 0% RMU +0.8 pts

When it happened

Buffalo’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Buffalo was ahead in it, below while Robert Morris was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:01 O. Hautanen missed a 35-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +4% RMU BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:08 Robert Morris converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +3% RMU RMU: Punt
3 Q2 4:32 Personal Foul on Buffalo, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% RMU RMU: Punt
4 Q2 1:23 Robert Morris fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% RMU RMU: Punt
5 Q2 0:35 Buffalo converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +2% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:24 Buffalo fumbled and Robert Morris recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Robert MorrisSpecial teams +6% RMU BUF: Field goal
7 Q4 1:46 Robert Morris converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% RMU –
8 Q4 0:34 Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +9% RMU BUF: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Robert Morris 52% · Buffalo 48%

Final margin
Buffalo by 3
Luck in points
3.6 for Buffalo
Luck-adjusted margin
Robert Morris by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Robert Morris 37% · Buffalo 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Robert Morris · Buffalo

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