Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Massachusetts at Sacramento State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Massachusetts beat Sacramento State 35–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Massachusetts wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Massachusetts was a 65% favorite.
Final
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 35 |
|---|---|
 Sacramento State Hornets | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Massachusetts about even · −6 Sacramento State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Massachusetts wins 9, Sacramento State wins 1.
- 1 MASS 49 SAC 10
- 2 MASS 48 SAC 16
- 3 MASS 42 SAC 14
- 4 MASS 34 SAC 10
- 5 MASS 41 SAC 21
- 6 MASS 31 SAC 14
- 7 MASS 31 SAC 17
- 8 MASS 26 SAC 16
- 9 MASS 14 SAC 10
- 10 MASS 17 SAC 22
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Massachusetts wins 94% of them, Sacramento State 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Massachusetts by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 64.6% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 11.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Sacramento State by 1–8 | 3.6% |
| Sacramento State by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Sacramento State by 17+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Morris, 40 yds missed · 73% expected
- G. Meadors, 20 yds made · 94% expected
- G. Meadors, 29 yds made · 87% expected
- G. Meadors, 40 yds missed · 72% expected
Penalties: Massachusetts 6 for 50 yards, Sacramento State 9 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:11 | Personal Foul on Sacramento State, 11 yards | +1% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:09 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 13 yards | +3% SAC +1.4 pts |
| Q2 10:27 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards | 0% MASS +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:02 | Offside on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:00 | Pass Interference on Sacramento State, 15 yards | +3% MASS +1.5 pts |
| Q2 2:19 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Sacramento State, 15 yards | +3% MASS +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Offside on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SAC +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | False Start on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SAC +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Personal Foul on Massachusetts, 13 yards | +1% SAC +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:00 | Holding on Massachusetts, 9 yards | 0% SAC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:25 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards | 0% MASS +1.8 pts |
| Q4 13:37 | Illegal Substitution on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.4 pts |
| Q4 9:16 | Illegal Formation on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:13 | Ineligible Downfield on Massachusetts, 5 yards | 0% SAC +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:04 | Personal Foul on Sacramento State, 9 yards | 0% MASS +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Sacramento State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:48 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +4% MASS | MASS: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 0:35 | Sacramento State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% SAC | SAC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 0:09 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +3% SAC | SAC: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:52 | Sacramento State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% MASS | SAC: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 11:36 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 6:07 | Sacramento State fumbled and Massachusetts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MASS | SAC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 2:19 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Sacramento State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 13:31 | Return touchdown by MassachusettsSpecial teams | +6% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Massachusetts 100% · Sacramento State 0%
- Final margin
- Massachusetts by 29
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for Massachusetts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Massachusetts by 27.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Massachusetts 94% · Sacramento State 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Massachusetts · 
Sacramento State
More from Week 4 2026
- Robert Morris at Buffalo BUF 31–28 · replay 63% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- UNLV at Akron UNLV 38–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- UConn at Miami (OH) M-OH 24–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ball State at Kent State KENT 26–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Boise State at Western Michigan BOIS 32–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan EMU 29–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- San Diego State at Toledo TOL 41–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Stonehill at Ohio OHIO 35–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Miami MIA 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner