MAC · 2026 season, in progress
Sacramento State Hornets: luck and expected wins
Sacramento State is 1–4 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.3 wins. Luck cost 0.3: the 41st-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Sacramento State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Eastern Michigan | L 17–28 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 1 | vs Mississippi Valley State | W 52–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Fresno State | L 3–49 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs North Dakota State | L 10–31 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 4 | vs Massachusetts | L 6–35 | 6% | −6 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Sacramento State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Bowling Green |  Bowling Green by 7.7 | 32% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Ohio |  Ohio by 14.1 | 19% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Ball State |  Ball State by 6.8 | 34% |
| Week 9 · Oct 30 | vs Kent State |  Kent State by 1.0 | 48% |
| Week 10 · Nov 4 | vs Toledo |  Toledo by 26.1 | 6% |
| Week 11 · Nov 11 | at Central Michigan |  Central Michigan by 12.4 | 23% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Hawai'i |  Hawai'i by 14.3 | 20% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Sacramento State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | −0.03 | −3.6 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.04 | −3.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.11 | +2.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Sacramento State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Mississippi Valley State | W 52–0 | 100% | 0 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Sacramento State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Nevada | L 17–20 | 32% | −32 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs North Dakota State | L 10–31 | 20% | −20 |
| 2026 Week 4 | vs Massachusetts | L 6–35 | 6% | −6 |
| 2026 Week 1 | @ Eastern Michigan | L 17–28 | 4% | −4 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Fresno State | L 3–49 | 0% | 0 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- MAC teams by luck
- MAC:
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, 
Buffalo, Central Michigan, 
Eastern Michigan, Kent State, 
Massachusetts, 
Miami (OH), Ohio, Toledo, 
Western Michigan
How many wins does Sacramento State have in 2026?
1–4 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.3 wins.
Was Sacramento State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.3 wins of luck, the 41st-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.