MAC · 2026 season, in progress

Western Michigan Broncos: luck and expected wins

Western Michigan is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 30th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often Western Michigan wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Michigan	L 12–13	14%	−14
Week 2	vs Monmouth	W 49–14	100%	0
Week 3	@ Rice	W 28–21	36%	+64
Week 4	vs Boise State	L 7–32	3%	−3

Wk 1 −14 @ MICH

Wk 2 0 vs MONM

Wk 3 +64 @ RICE

Wk 4 −3 vs BOIS

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Western Michigan win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Buffalo	Western Michigan by 15.8	84%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Kent State	Western Michigan by 21.3	91%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Central Michigan	Western Michigan by 9.9	73%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Toledo	Toledo by 10.1	27%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Bowling Green	Western Michigan by 20.9	90%
Week 11 · Nov 10	at Akron	Western Michigan by 12.9	78%
Week 12 · Nov 17	vs Eastern Michigan	Western Michigan by 19.8	88%
Week 13 · Nov 24	vs Miami (OH)	Western Michigan by 7.5	67%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Western Michigan’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.21	−2.0
Fumble bounces	+0.16	+10.4
Kicks	+0.10	+7.5
Pre-snap flags	+0.06	+2.1

Luckiest wins

Wins Western Michigan takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	@ Rice	W 28–21	36%	+64
2025 Week 14	@ Eastern Michigan	W 31–21	48%	+52
2025 Week 10	vs Central Michigan	W 24–21	48%	+52
2025 Week 4	vs Toledo	W 14–13	71%	+29
2025 Week 15	vs Miami (OH)	W 23–13	74%	+26

Unluckiest losses

Losses Western Michigan would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 1	@ Michigan	L 12–13	14%	−14
2025 Week 9	@ Miami (OH)	L 17–26	14%	−14
2025 Week 2	vs North Texas	L 30–33	11%	−11
2025 Week 1	@ Michigan State	L 6–23	9%	−9
2026 Week 4	vs Boise State	L 7–32	3%	−3

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	9–4	7.4	+1.6	3–1	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Michigan State	L 6–23	9%	−9
Week 2	vs North Texas	L 30–33	11%	−11
Week 3	@ Illinois	L 0–38	1%	−1
Week 4	vs Toledo	W 14–13	71%	+29
Week 5	vs Rhode Island	W 47–14	88%	+12
Week 6	@ Massachusetts	W 21–3	94%	+6
Week 7	vs Ball State	W 42–0	100%	0
Week 9	@ Miami (OH)	L 17–26	14%	−14
Week 10	vs Central Michigan	W 24–21	48%	+52
Week 12	vs Ohio	W 17–13	83%	+17
Week 13	@ Northern Illinois	W 35–19	100%	0
Week 14	@ Eastern Michigan	W 31–21	48%	+52
Week 15	vs Miami (OH)	W 23–13	74%	+26
Myrtle Beach Bowl	vs Kennesaw State	W 41–6	99%	+1