Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Western Michigan at Miami (OH), Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami (OH) beat Western Michigan 26–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami (OH) wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami (OH) was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:11 left): Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to Miami (OH).
Final
 Western Michigan Broncos | 17 |
|---|---|
 Miami (OH) RedHawks | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Miami (OH) about even · −14 Western Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Michigan wins 1, Miami (OH) wins 9.
- 1 WMU 14 M-OH 7
- 2 WMU 21 M-OH 24
- 3 WMU 7 M-OH 12
- 4 WMU 13 M-OH 20
- 5 WMU 10 M-OH 20
- 6 WMU 14 M-OH 28
- 7 WMU 21 M-OH 38
- 8 WMU 3 M-OH 24
- 9 WMU 14 M-OH 40
- 10 WMU 0 M-OH 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Michigan wins 14% of them, Miami (OH) 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami (OH) by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 1.5% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 7.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Miami (OH) by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Miami (OH) by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Miami (OH) by 17+ | 44.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Dzioban, 44 yds made · 68% expected
- D. Dzioban, 24 yds made · 95% expected
- D. Dzioban, 29 yds made · 91% expected
- P. Domschke, 42 yds made · 66% expected
- D. Dzioban, 51 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Western Michigan 0 for 0 yards, Miami (OH) 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:30 | False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WMU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 3:29 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 10 yards | +3% WMU +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Miami (OH)’s chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:48 | Western Michigan was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +6% M-OH | WMU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 5:45 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 11:55 | Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +4% WMU | M-OH: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 2:02 | Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% WMU | M-OH: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 10:31 | Miami (OH)’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% WMU | M-OH: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 8:05 | Western Michigan fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 6:11 | Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +11% M-OH | M-OH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:40 | Miami (OH)’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% M-OH | M-OH: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Michigan 14% · Miami (OH) 86%
- Final margin
- Miami (OH) by 9
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for Miami (OH)
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami (OH) by 7.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Michigan 14% · Miami (OH) 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Western Michigan · 
Miami (OH)
More from Week 9 2025
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ball State at Northern Illinois NIU 21–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Ohio at Eastern Michigan OHIO 28–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Toledo at Washington State WSU 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Central Michigan CMU 38–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner