Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Massachusetts at Central Michigan, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Central Michigan beat Massachusetts 38–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Central Michigan wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Central Michigan was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 13 |
|---|---|
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Central Michigan about even · 0 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Massachusetts wins 0, Central Michigan wins 10.
- 1 MASS 12 CMU 31
- 2 MASS 3 CMU 29
- 3 MASS 9 CMU 42
- 4 MASS 10 CMU 48
- 5 MASS 10 CMU 51
- 6 MASS 7 CMU 51
- 7 MASS 7 CMU 56
- 8 MASS 0 CMU 52
- 9 MASS 3 CMU 59
- 10 MASS 0 CMU 65
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Massachusetts wins 0% of them, Central Michigan 100%. The line is what actually happened: Central Michigan by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 98.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Graham, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- D. Morris, 29 yds made · 87% expected
- D. Morris, 50 yds made · 54% expected
Penalties: Massachusetts 7 for 45 yards, Central Michigan 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:35 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CMU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:14 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards | 0% MASS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 14:53 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:41 | Offside on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:52 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards | 0% MASS +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:19 | Personal Foul on Massachusetts, 15 yards | +1% CMU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 12:20 | Offside on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +2.0 pts |
| Q3 7:10 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards | 0% MASS +3.0 pts |
| Q3 6:09 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU +2.2 pts |
| Q3 4:45 | Face Mask on Central Michigan, 15 yards | 0% MASS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:25 | Offside on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 8:30 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Central Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:01 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +1% CMU | MASS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:48 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +1% CMU | CMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:35 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% CMU | CMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 3:28 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +0% CMU | MASS: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 6:27 | Central Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +0% MASS | CMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 3:23 | Massachusetts was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +1% CMU | MASS: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 0:20 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +0% MASS | MASS: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 14:19 | Personal Foul on Massachusetts, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% CMU | CMU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Massachusetts 0% · Central Michigan 100%
- Final margin
- Central Michigan by 25
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for Central Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Central Michigan by 19.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Massachusetts 0% · Central Michigan 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Massachusetts · 
Central Michigan
More from Week 9 2025
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ball State at Northern Illinois NIU 21–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Ohio at Eastern Michigan OHIO 28–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Miami (OH) M-OH 26–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Toledo at Washington State WSU 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner