luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Bowling Green at Kent State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Kent State beat Bowling Green 24–21, but the replays lean toward Bowling Green: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Kent State.

Before kickoff Bowling Green was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:49 left): Kent State converted 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to Kent State.

Final

Bowling Green Falcons 21
Kent State Golden Flashes 24

October 25, 2025 · Dix Stadium · Closing line: Bowling Green −7.5

Luck index +62 Kent State very lucky · −62 Bowling Green

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bowling Green wins 6, Kent State wins 4.

  1. 1 BGSU 35 KENT 10
  2. 2 BGSU 30 KENT 10
  3. 3 BGSU 17 KENT 3
  4. 4 BGSU 28 KENT 19
  5. 5 BGSU 24 KENT 20
  6. 6 BGSU 20 KENT 17
  7. 7 BGSU 7 KENT 10
  8. 8 BGSU 13 KENT 20
  9. 9 BGSU 9 KENT 20
  10. 10 BGSU 0 KENT 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bowling Green wins 62% of them, Kent State 38%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kent State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bowling Green by 17+21.4%
Bowling Green by 9–1617.2%
Bowling Green by 1–822.5%
Level after regulation6.7%
Kent State by 1–816.9%
Kent State by 9–1610.5%
Kent State by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to Bowling Green: the final margin was Kent State by 3, without the luck Kent State by 10.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Hryszko, 35 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Kleather, 43 yds missed · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bowling Green 7 for 66 yards, Kent State 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:25 Holding on Bowling Green, 9 yards +1% KENT +0.6 pts
Q2 8:38 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BGSU +1.6 pts
Q2 7:51 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BGSU +0.5 pts
Q2 3:23 Pass Interference on Kent State, 15 yards +3% BGSU +1.7 pts
Q2 1:52 Unnecessary Roughness on Kent State, 15 yards +1% BGSU +0.7 pts
Q3 12:22 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards +1% KENT +0.6 pts
Q3 6:43 Personal Foul on Bowling Green, 15 yards +1% KENT +1.6 pts
Q3 6:18 Holding on Bowling Green, 9 yards +1% KENT +0.6 pts
Q3 5:31 Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% KENT +0.4 pts
Q3 4:50 Encroachment on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BGSU +0.6 pts
Q3 4:17 Illegal Block on Bowling Green, 10 yards +2% KENT +0.6 pts
Q4 0:38 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards +2% KENT +0.2 pts
Q4 0:28 Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BGSU +0.1 pts

When it happened

Kent State’s chance of winning

As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kent State was ahead in it, below while Bowling Green was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:13 Kent State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% KENT KENT: Field goal
2 Q4 14:56 J. Kleather missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him +8% KENT BGSU: Punt
3 Q4 12:49 Kent State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% KENT KENT: Punt
4 Q4 4:52 Kent State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% KENT KENT: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:58 Bowling Green converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% BGSU BGSU: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:07 Bowling Green was stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% KENT BGSU: End of game
7 Q4 0:17 Bowling Green converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +6% BGSU BGSU: End of game
8 Q4 0:05 Bowling Green converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% BGSU BGSU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bowling Green 4% · Kent State 96%

Final margin
Kent State by 3
Luck in points
7.9 for Bowling Green
Luck-adjusted margin
Kent State by 10.9
Replay with same day's form
Bowling Green 62% · Kent State 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Bowling Green · Kent State

More from Week 9 2025

Every week 9 game, 2025