Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 21 of the 28 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Ball State at Northern Illinois, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Northern Illinois beat Ball State 21–7, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Northern Illinois was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:07 left): Northern Illinois was stopped on 4th & 2, worth 8 points of win probability to Ball State.
Final
 Ball State Cardinals | 7 |
|---|---|
 Northern Illinois Huskies | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Northern Illinois lucky · −32 Ball State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ball State wins 3, Northern Illinois wins 7.
- 1 BALL 22 NIU 7
- 2 BALL 7 NIU 0
- 3 BALL 17 NIU 14
- 4 BALL 7 NIU 10
- 5 BALL 24 NIU 28
- 6 BALL 0 NIU 7
- 7 BALL 0 NIU 10
- 8 BALL 21 NIU 35
- 9 BALL 10 NIU 27
- 10 BALL 0 NIU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ball State wins 32% of them, Northern Illinois 68%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northern Illinois by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ball State by 17+ | 4.2% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Level after regulation | 6.3% |
| Northern Illinois by 1–8 | 23.9% |
| Northern Illinois by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Northern Illinois by 17+ | 21.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Ball State 4 for 40 yards, Northern Illinois 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:03 | Offside on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:40 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 15 yards | +5% NIU +2.2 pts |
| Q2 8:37 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +7% BALL +2.7 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards | 0% NIU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:01 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NIU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 12:13 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards | +7% BALL +2.6 pts |
| Q4 13:54 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards | +2% NIU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Northern Illinois’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:07 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +8% BALL | NIU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 9:40 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% NIU | NIU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 8:37 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% BALL | BALL: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 5:48 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% NIU | NIU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 12:13 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% BALL | BALL: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 11:26 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% NIU | NIU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 9:57 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +5% NIU | NIU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 5:08 | Ball State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% BALL | BALL: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ball State 0% · Northern Illinois 100%
- Final margin
- Northern Illinois by 14
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for Ball State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Northern Illinois by 19.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Ball State 32% · Northern Illinois 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 21 of the 28 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Ball State · 
Northern Illinois
More from Week 9 2025
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Eastern Michigan OHIO 28–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Miami (OH) M-OH 26–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Toledo at Washington State WSU 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Central Michigan CMU 38–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner