Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Ohio at Eastern Michigan, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio beat Eastern Michigan 28–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:03 left): Ineligible Downfield on Ohio, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.
Final
 Ohio Bobcats | 28 |
|---|---|
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Ohio about even · −23 Eastern Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ohio wins 8, Eastern Michigan wins 2.
- 1 OHIO 56 EMU 21
- 2 OHIO 45 EMU 17
- 3 OHIO 41 EMU 20
- 4 OHIO 28 EMU 10
- 5 OHIO 37 EMU 23
- 6 OHIO 31 EMU 21
- 7 OHIO 27 EMU 21
- 8 OHIO 27 EMU 24
- 9 OHIO 14 EMU 17
- 10 OHIO 14 EMU 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ohio wins 77% of them, Eastern Michigan 23%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ohio by 17+ | 36.6% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 11.9% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 4.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Kessinger, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
- B. Peacock, 34 yds missed · 81% expected
Penalties: Ohio 9 for 52 yards, Eastern Michigan 6 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:56 | Intentional Grounding on Ohio, 0 yards | 0% EMU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 4:44 | Holding on Ohio, 7 yards | +2% EMU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:23 | Offside on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% EMU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% EMU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:00 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | 0% EMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Intentional Grounding on Ohio, 0 yards | 0% EMU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | Ineligible Downfield on Ohio, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +19% EMU +6.2 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | Illegal Substitution on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +10% OHIO +3.2 pts |
| Q3 12:38 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | +4% EMU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:45 | Targeting on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards | +5% OHIO +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:08 | Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 14 yards | +7% OHIO +2.2 pts |
| Q4 13:30 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% EMU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:31 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | 0% EMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:35 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:30 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OHIO +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Eastern Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:04 | Ohio converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% OHIO | OHIO: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q2 10:11 | Ohio was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +7% EMU | OHIO: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 0:03 | Ineligible Downfield on Ohio, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsIllegal Substitution on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +9% EMU | EMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 9:45 | Targeting on Eastern Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 7:08 | Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +7% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 4:40 | Ohio converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +5% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:29 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% EMU | EMU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 6:03 | B. Peacock missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +5% EMU | OHIO: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ohio 59% · Eastern Michigan 41%
- Final margin
- Ohio by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.5 for Ohio
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Ohio 77% · Eastern Michigan 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Ohio · 
Eastern Michigan
More from Week 9 2025
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ball State at Northern Illinois NIU 21–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Miami (OH) M-OH 26–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Toledo at Washington State WSU 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Central Michigan CMU 38–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner