Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
BYU at Iowa State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
BYU beat Iowa State 41–27, but the replays lean toward Iowa State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Iowa State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:16 left): Iowa State fumbled and BYU recovered, worth 12 points of win probability to BYU.
Final
 BYU Cougars | 41 |
|---|---|
 Iowa State Cyclones | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 BYU very lucky · −74 Iowa State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. BYU wins 3, Iowa State wins 7.
- 1 BYU 42 ISU 23
- 2 BYU 24 ISU 14
- 3 BYU 27 ISU 24
- 4 BYU 24 ISU 26
- 5 BYU 31 ISU 35
- 6 BYU 17 ISU 24
- 7 BYU 24 ISU 35
- 8 BYU 24 ISU 38
- 9 BYU 14 ISU 35
- 10 BYU 10 ISU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
BYU wins 26% of them, Iowa State 74%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| BYU by 17+ | 4.8% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 7.1% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 13.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Iowa State by 17+ | 29.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Konrardy, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- W. Ferrin, 50 yds made · 59% expected
- W. Ferrin, 27 yds made · 94% expected
- K. Konrardy, 43 yds made · 68% expected
Penalties: BYU 8 for 57 yards, Iowa State 5 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:01 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | +1% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:13 | False Start on BYU, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:01 | False Start on BYU, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% ISU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 13:55 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | +3% ISU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 12:18 | Illegal Formation on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ISU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:29 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:45 | Face Mask on Iowa State, 9 yards | +4% BYU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:02 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | +4% BYU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 1:40 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | +2% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:28 | False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:53 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | 0% ISU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 2:53 | False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:25 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% BYU +3.7 pts |
When it happened
Iowa State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:27 | BYU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% BYU | BYU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 14:00 | BYU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% BYU | BYU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 4:50 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +6% ISU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 4:45 | Face Mask on Iowa State, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +4% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 3:02 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 1:55 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedIowa State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% ISU | ISU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 0:17 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +5% ISU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 0:16 | Iowa State fumbled and BYU recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% BYU | ISU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
BYU 99% · Iowa State 1%
- Final margin
- BYU by 14
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Iowa State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- BYU by 15.0
- Replay with same day's form
- BYU 26% · Iowa State 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
BYU · 
Iowa State
More from Week 9 2025
- TCU at West Virginia TCU 23–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Houston at Arizona State HOU 24–16 · replay 54% for the winner
- Baylor at Cincinnati CIN 41–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Texas Tech TTU 42–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Kansas State at Kansas KSU 42–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Colorado at Utah UTAH 53–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner