Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Oklahoma State 42–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Texas Tech about even · −4 Oklahoma State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma State wins 0, Texas Tech wins 10.
- 1 OKST 13 TTU 16
- 2 OKST 10 TTU 17
- 3 OKST 10 TTU 20
- 4 OKST 0 TTU 13
- 5 OKST 10 TTU 24
- 6 OKST 6 TTU 24
- 7 OKST 7 TTU 28
- 8 OKST 3 TTU 27
- 9 OKST 0 TTU 28
- 10 OKST 3 TTU 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma State wins 4% of them, Texas Tech 96%. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Oklahoma State by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Oklahoma State by 1–8 | 3.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 12.4% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 64.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Harrington, 45 yds missed · 64% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma State 6 for 48 yards, Texas Tech 1 for 9 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:46 | Face Mask on Oklahoma State, 7 yards | 0% TTU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:04 | Offside on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:39 | Illegal Substitution on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:00 | Holding on Texas Tech, 9 yards | 0% OKST +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:00 | Offside on Oklahoma State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% TTU +4.0 pts |
| Q4 9:01 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 11 yards | 0% TTU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:13 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | 0% TTU +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:56 | Texas Tech missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% OKST | TTU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:23 | Oklahoma State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% TTU | OKST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:27 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% OKST | TTU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:41 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 4:20 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:46 | Face Mask on Oklahoma State, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 1:30 | Texas Tech’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 10:00 | Offside on Oklahoma State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +1% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma State 0% · Texas Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 42
- Luck in points
- 7.5 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 34.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma State 4% · Texas Tech 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Oklahoma State · 
Texas Tech
More from Week 9 2025
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- TCU at West Virginia TCU 23–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Houston at Arizona State HOU 24–16 · replay 54% for the winner
- Baylor at Cincinnati CIN 41–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Kansas State at Kansas KSU 42–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Colorado at Utah UTAH 53–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner