Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Kansas State at Kansas, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Kansas State beat Kansas 42–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Kansas: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Kansas State it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers
Before kickoff Kansas was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:16 left): Return touchdown by Kansas State, worth 18 points of win probability to Kansas State.
Final
 Kansas State Wildcats | 42 |
|---|---|
 Kansas Jayhawks | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Kansas State about even · −3 Kansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kansas State wins 10, Kansas wins 0.
- 1 KSU 44 KU 0
- 2 KSU 35 KU 0
- 3 KSU 31 KU 0
- 4 KSU 35 KU 7
- 5 KSU 24 KU 0
- 6 KSU 24 KU 3
- 7 KSU 21 KU 3
- 8 KSU 24 KU 9
- 9 KSU 21 KU 10
- 10 KSU 13 KU 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Kansas
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Kansas State it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for Kansas: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.27 | +0.13 | better by 0.14 |
| Kansas State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.04 | better by 0.08 |
| Kansas offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.17 | worse by 0.21 |
| Kansas defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.27 | +0.13 | worse by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kansas State wins 97% of them, Kansas 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kansas State by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kansas State by 17+ | 73.8% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 15.1% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 7.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 2.0% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Kansas by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Kansas State 3 for 30 yards, Kansas 5 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:45 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | +2% KSU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 12:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kansas State, 15 yards | +3% KU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 11:41 | Face Mask on Kansas, 15 yards | +3% KSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:12 | Delay of Game on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:05 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | 0% KSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:52 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards | 0% KU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 5:29 | Face Mask on Kansas, 6 yards | 0% KSU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 3:30 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KSU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Kansas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kansas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% KU | KU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 9:16 | Kansas fumbled and Kansas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Kansas StateSpecial teams | +18% KSU | KU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 4:30 | Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +4% KSU | KU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 4:24 | Kansas fumbled and Kansas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% KSU | KU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 6:22 | Kansas converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +4% KU | KU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 13:39 | Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% KSU | KU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 8:53 | Kansas State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +3% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 3:48 | Kansas converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +4% KU | KU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kansas State 100% · Kansas 0%
- Final margin
- Kansas State by 25
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for Kansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas State by 23.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Kansas State 97% · Kansas 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Kansas State · 
Kansas
More from Week 9 2025
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- TCU at West Virginia TCU 23–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Houston at Arizona State HOU 24–16 · replay 54% for the winner
- Baylor at Cincinnati CIN 41–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Texas Tech TTU 42–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Colorado at Utah UTAH 53–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner