Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
Kansas State Wildcats: luck and expected wins
Kansas State is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.0 wins. Luck cost 0.0: the 54th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Kansas State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Nicholls | W 71–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Washington State | W 34–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Tulane | W 31–20 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 4 | @ Cincinnati | L 26–31 | 17% | −17 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Kansas State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Houston |  Kansas State by 4.0 | 60% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Kansas | Kansas State by 12.1 | 77% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Arizona State | Kansas State by 1.1 | 53% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Colorado | Kansas State by 9.2 | 71% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Oklahoma State | Kansas State by 12.1 | 77% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at TCU |  TCU by 0.1 | 50% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Arizona | Kansas State by 4.5 | 60% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Iowa State |  Iowa State by 4.1 | 40% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Kansas State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.20 | +24.0 |
| Kicks | −0.02 | −1.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.03 | −0.1 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.15 | +0.1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Kansas State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 12 | @ Oklahoma State | W 14–6 | 7% | +93 |
| 2025 Week 7 | vs TCU | W 41–28 | 31% | +69 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Colorado | W 24–14 | 69% | +31 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs UCF | W 34–20 | 82% | +18 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Tulane | W 31–20 | 88% | +12 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Kansas State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Army | L 21–24 | 81% | −81 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Iowa State | L 21–24 | 69% | −69 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Utah | L 47–51 | 48% | −48 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Baylor | L 34–35 | 33% | −33 |
| 2026 Week 4 | @ Cincinnati | L 26–31 | 17% | −17 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6–6 | 6.3 | −0.3 | 2–5 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Iowa State | L 21–24 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 1 | vs North Dakota | W 38–35 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 2 | vs Army | L 21–24 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 3 | @ Arizona | L 17–23 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 5 | vs UCF | W 34–20 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 6 | @ Baylor | L 34–35 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 7 | vs TCU | W 41–28 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 9 | @ Kansas | W 42–17 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 10 | vs Texas Tech | L 20–43 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 12 | @ Oklahoma State | W 14–6 | 7% | +93 |
| Week 13 | @ Utah | L 47–51 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 14 | vs Colorado | W 24–14 | 69% | +31 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12:
Arizona, 
Arizona State, 
Baylor, 
BYU, 
Cincinnati, 
Colorado, 
Houston, Iowa State, 
Kansas, 
Oklahoma State, TCU, 
Texas Tech, 
UCF, 
Utah, 
West Virginia
How many wins does Kansas State have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.0 wins.
Was Kansas State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: 0.0 wins of luck, the 54th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Kansas State’s luckiest season?
2026: 3–1 from play worth 3.0 wins, 0.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 6–6 from play worth 6.3 (−0.3).