Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Texas Tech at Kansas State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Kansas State 43–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 69% favorite.
Final
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 43 |
|---|---|
 Kansas State Wildcats | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Texas Tech about even · −8 Kansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas Tech wins 9, Kansas State wins 1.
- 1 TTU 44 KSU 0
- 2 TTU 45 KSU 10
- 3 TTU 31 KSU 0
- 4 TTU 44 KSU 17
- 5 TTU 30 KSU 7
- 6 TTU 27 KSU 7
- 7 TTU 30 KSU 14
- 8 TTU 21 KSU 10
- 9 TTU 21 KSU 17
- 10 TTU 34 KSU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas Tech wins 92% of them, Kansas State 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 65.5% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 10.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 4.5% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Kansas State by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Harrington, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- S. Harrington, 55 yds made · 46% expected
- S. Harrington, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Texas Tech 4 for 21 yards, Kansas State 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:23 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 11:35 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:20 | False Start on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:42 | Encroachment on Texas Tech, 6 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:01 | Illegal Use of Hands on Kansas State, 5 yards | +2% TTU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:40 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 13:50 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% TTU +3.1 pts |
When it happened
Kansas State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:59 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% TTU | TTU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 3:21 | Texas Tech was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +6% KSU | TTU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 5:45 | Kansas State fumbled and Texas Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% TTU | KSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 13:51 | Kansas State fumbled and Texas Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TTU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 9:51 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +5% KSU | KSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 13:50 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% TTU | TTU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 7:16 | Kansas State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +4% TTU | KSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 4:52 | Kansas State fumbled and Texas Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Texas TechSpecial teams | +4% TTU | KSU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas Tech 100% · Kansas State 0%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 23
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 22.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas Tech 92% · Kansas State 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Texas Tech · 
Kansas State
More from Week 10 2025
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner
- Arizona State at Iowa State ASU 24–19 · replay 62% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Utah UTAH 45–14 · replay 73% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Kansas KU 38–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- UCF at Baylor BAY 30–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Arizona at Colorado ARIZ 52–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner