Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Arizona State at Iowa State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Arizona State beat Iowa State 24–19, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Iowa State had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Iowa State.
Before kickoff Iowa State was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:12 left): Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to Arizona State.
Final
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 24 |
|---|---|
 Iowa State Cyclones | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Arizona State lucky · −38 Iowa State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arizona State wins 6, Iowa State wins 4.
- 1 ASU 44 ISU 12
- 2 ASU 34 ISU 14
- 3 ASU 49 ISU 34
- 4 ASU 31 ISU 20
- 5 ASU 38 ISU 30
- 6 ASU 27 ISU 24
- 7 ASU 14 ISU 16
- 8 ASU 28 ISU 36
- 9 ASU 9 ISU 24
- 10 ASU 10 ISU 32
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arizona State wins 62% of them, Iowa State 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arizona State by 17+ | 23.9% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 17.4% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 10.9% |
| Iowa State by 17+ | 9.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Konrardy, 49 yds missed · 57% expected
- K. Konrardy, 30 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Gomez, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- K. Konrardy, 55 yds missed · 46% expected
- K. Konrardy, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Arizona State 11 for 119 yards, Iowa State 7 for 56 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:54 | Holding on Arizona State, 5 yards | +1% ISU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 10:27 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | 0% ISU +1.7 pts |
| Q1 9:01 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | +2% ASU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 2:00 | Pass Interference on Iowa State, 7 yards | +1% ASU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 1:08 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | 0% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:08 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:13 | Roughing the Passer on Arizona State, 15 yards | +3% ISU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:27 | Pass Interference on Arizona State, 15 yards | +1% ISU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 12:39 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | +1% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:38 | Illegal Block on Iowa State, 7 yards | +1% ASU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 8:36 | False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ASU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:06 | False Start on Iowa State, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% ASU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:36 | Personal Foul on Arizona State, 15 yards | +2% ISU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:43 | Personal Foul on Arizona State, 15 yards | +4% ISU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:38 | Pass Interference on Arizona State, 9 yards | +2% ISU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:12 | Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yards | +8% ASU +2.2 pts |
| Q4 13:18 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | +4% ISU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:21 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa State, 8 yards | +2% ASU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Iowa State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:27 | K. Konrardy missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 7 of 13 from 45+ beforeHolding on Arizona State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% ASU | ISU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 4:13 | Arizona State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% ASU | ASU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 1:31 | Arizona State fumbled and Iowa State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% ISU | ASU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 13:43 | Personal Foul on Arizona State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% ISU | ISU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 6:45 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% ASU | ISU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 0:12 | Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% ASU | ASU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 0:44 | Iowa State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +7% ISU | ISU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:16 | Iowa State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% ASU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arizona State 23% · Iowa State 77%
- Final margin
- Arizona State by 5
- Luck in points
- 9.8 for Arizona State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa State by 4.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Arizona State 62% · Iowa State 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Arizona State · 
Iowa State
More from Week 10 2025
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Utah UTAH 45–14 · replay 73% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Kansas KU 38–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Kansas State TTU 43–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- UCF at Baylor BAY 30–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Arizona at Colorado ARIZ 52–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner