luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

Arizona at Colorado, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Arizona beat Colorado 52–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Arizona was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:37 left): Ineligible Downfield on Colorado, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to Arizona.

Final

Arizona Wildcats 52
Colorado Buffaloes 17

November 1, 2025 · Folsom Field · Closing line: Arizona −4

Luck index +2 Arizona about even · −2 Colorado

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arizona wins 10, Colorado wins 0.

  1. 1 ARIZ 58 COLO 6
  2. 2 ARIZ 52 COLO 10
  3. 3 ARIZ 44 COLO 7
  4. 4 ARIZ 33 COLO 0
  5. 5 ARIZ 42 COLO 14
  6. 6 ARIZ 41 COLO 17
  7. 7 ARIZ 41 COLO 21
  8. 8 ARIZ 20 COLO 3
  9. 9 ARIZ 24 COLO 13
  10. 10 ARIZ 27 COLO 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arizona wins 98% of them, Colorado 2%. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arizona by 17+84.5%
Arizona by 9–168.8%
Arizona by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation0.3%
Colorado by 1–80.9%
Colorado by 9–160.5%
Colorado by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to Colorado: the final margin was Arizona by 35, without the luck Arizona by 38.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Salgado-Medina, 49 yds made · 55% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 30 yds missed · 87% expected
  • A. Mata, 31 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Arizona 7 for 55 yards, Colorado 13 for 105 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:46 Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARIZ +0.8 pts
Q1 5:48 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards +1% ARIZ +0.6 pts
Q1 3:35 Offside on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARIZ +0.6 pts
Q1 1:12 Illegal Substitution on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% COLO +0.4 pts
Q2 12:37 Ineligible Downfield on Colorado, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% ARIZ +7.5 pts
Q2 12:21 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado, 10 yards +1% ARIZ +1.1 pts
Q2 12:21 Holding on Colorado, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% ARIZ +1.2 pts
Q2 10:11 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards 0% COLO +0.6 pts
Q2 9:31 Roughing the Passer on Colorado, 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARIZ +4.5 pts
Q2 7:54 Illegal Touching on Arizona, 5 yards 0% COLO +0.3 pts
Q2 7:53 Illegal Formation on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARIZ +1.2 pts
Q3 9:11 False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARIZ +0.7 pts
Q3 7:35 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards 0% COLO +0.6 pts
Q3 6:55 Offside on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARIZ +0.8 pts
Q3 2:12 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% COLO +3.0 pts
Q4 9:41 False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% COLO +1.5 pts
Q4 8:23 Targeting on Colorado, 15 yards 0% ARIZ +1.8 pts
Q4 5:30 Unnecessary Roughness on Colorado, 15 yards 0% ARIZ +0.9 pts
Q4 3:36 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% COLO +4.3 pts
Q4 0:53 Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARIZ +0.3 pts

When it happened

Colorado’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Colorado was ahead in it, below while Arizona was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:07 Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +3% COLO ARIZ: Field goal
2 Q1 9:20 Arizona converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% ARIZ ARIZ: Field goal
3 Q1 8:01 Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +2% COLO ARIZ: Field goal
4 Q1 7:56 M. Salgado-Medina made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 2 of 7 from 45+ before +4% ARIZ ARIZ: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:44 Colorado converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +3% COLO COLO: End of half
6 Q1 1:21 Colorado converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% COLO COLO: End of half
7 Q2 12:37 Ineligible Downfield on Colorado, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% ARIZ ARIZ: Punt
8 Q2 9:31 Roughing the Passer on Colorado, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% ARIZ ARIZ: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arizona 100% · Colorado 0%

Final margin
Arizona by 35
Luck in points
3.3 for Colorado
Luck-adjusted margin
Arizona by 38.3
Replay with same day's form
Arizona 98% · Colorado 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Arizona · Colorado

More from Week 10 2025

Every week 10 game, 2025