Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Cincinnati at Utah, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah beat Cincinnati 45–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was a 77% favorite.
Final
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 14 |
|---|---|
 Utah Utes | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Utah lucky · −27 Cincinnati
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cincinnati wins 3, Utah wins 7.
- 1 CIN 51 UTAH 31
- 2 CIN 48 UTAH 38
- 3 CIN 44 UTAH 41
- 4 CIN 14 UTAH 16
- 5 CIN 8 UTAH 14
- 6 CIN 24 UTAH 33
- 7 CIN 31 UTAH 45
- 8 CIN 0 UTAH 17
- 9 CIN 17 UTAH 41
- 10 CIN 21 UTAH 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cincinnati wins 27% of them, Utah 73%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati by 17+ | 5.3% |
| Cincinnati by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Cincinnati by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.1% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 17.8% |
| Utah by 17+ | 33.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Rusnak, 42 yds missed · 71% expected
- D. Curtis, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Cincinnati 8 for 60 yards, Utah 5 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:36 | Illegal Motion on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:44 | Offside on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 10:48 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:17 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards | +1% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:37 | False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | Face Mask on Cincinnati, 5 yards | +1% UTAH +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | Offside on Cincinnati, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:30 | Offside on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:07 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards | +3% UTAH +2.6 pts |
| Q3 7:41 | False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:23 | Face Mask on Cincinnati, 9 yards | +1% UTAH +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:13 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards | 0% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:59 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Utah’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:26 | Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% UTAH | CIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:10 | Utah fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:21 | Utah converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:27 | Utah converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 5:06 | Cincinnati converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:17 | S. Rusnak missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him | +4% UTAH | CIN: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 10:16 | Cincinnati fumbled and Utah recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% UTAH | CIN: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 10:07 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UTAH | UTAH: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cincinnati 0% · Utah 100%
- Final margin
- Utah by 31
- Luck in points
- 11.2 for Utah
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 19.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Cincinnati 27% · Utah 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Cincinnati · 
Utah
More from Week 10 2025
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner
- Arizona State at Iowa State ASU 24–19 · replay 62% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Kansas KU 38–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Kansas State TTU 43–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- UCF at Baylor BAY 30–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Arizona at Colorado ARIZ 52–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner