Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Oklahoma State at Kansas, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Kansas beat Oklahoma State 38–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Kansas was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 21 |
|---|---|
 Kansas Jayhawks | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Kansas about even · −17 Oklahoma State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma State wins 2, Kansas wins 8.
- 1 OKST 13 KU 2
- 2 OKST 3 KU 0
- 3 OKST 0 KU 3
- 4 OKST 10 KU 16
- 5 OKST 7 KU 16
- 6 OKST 16 KU 27
- 7 OKST 10 KU 24
- 8 OKST 3 KU 21
- 9 OKST 7 KU 28
- 10 OKST 0 KU 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma State wins 16% of them, Kansas 84%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kansas by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma State by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Oklahoma State by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Oklahoma State by 1–8 | 10.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 24.3% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 23.0% |
| Kansas by 17+ | 32.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Marjan, 39 yds made · 77% expected
- L. Ward, 44 yds missed · 66% expected
- L. Ward, 19 yds missed · 95% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma State 1 for 5 yards, Kansas 2 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:39 | Face Mask on Kansas, 15 yards | +1% OKST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:35 | Illegal Shift on Oklahoma State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% KU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:35 | Targeting on Kansas, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% OKST +2.7 pts |
When it happened
Kansas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:40 | Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +3% OKST | OKST: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:08 | Kansas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% KU | KU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 14:52 | Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% OKST | OKST: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 12:35 | Illegal Shift on Oklahoma State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +2% KU | KU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 10:18 | L. Ward missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him | +3% KU | OKST: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 7:20 | Kansas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% KU | KU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 5:33 | Kansas converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +3% KU | KU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 12:36 | Kansas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +1% KU | KU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma State 4% · Kansas 96%
- Final margin
- Kansas by 17
- Luck in points
- 6.7 for Kansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas by 10.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma State 16% · Kansas 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Oklahoma State · 
Kansas
More from Week 10 2025
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner
- Arizona State at Iowa State ASU 24–19 · replay 62% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Utah UTAH 45–14 · replay 73% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Kansas State TTU 43–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- UCF at Baylor BAY 30–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Arizona at Colorado ARIZ 52–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner