Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
Kansas Jayhawks: luck and expected wins
Kansas is 1–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.0 wins. Luck cost 1.0: the 11th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Kansas wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Long Island University | W 51–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Missouri | L 21–38 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 3 | vs Arizona State | L 17–24 | 92% | −92 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Kansas win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Middle Tennessee |  Kansas by 17.0 | 86% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Utah |  Utah by 25.8 | 5% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Kansas State |  Kansas State by 12.1 | 23% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Baylor |  Baylor by 2.0 | 45% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at TCU |  TCU by 9.1 | 29% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs UCF |  UCF by 2.1 | 45% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at West Virginia |  West Virginia by 2.3 | 45% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs BYU |  BYU by 10.0 | 28% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Oklahoma State |  Oklahoma State by 3.1 | 43% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Kansas’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.18 | 0.0 |
| Pre-snap flags | +0.05 | +3.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.17 | −3.4 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Kansas takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 6 | @ UCF | W 27–20 | 71% | +29 |
| 2025 Week 10 | vs Oklahoma State | W 38–21 | 84% | +17 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs West Virginia | W 41–10 | 99% | +1 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Fresno State | W 31–7 | 100% | 0 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Wagner | W 46–7 | 100% | 0 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Kansas would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Arizona State | L 17–24 | 92% | −92 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Utah | L 21–31 | 80% | −80 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Cincinnati | L 34–37 | 70% | −70 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Iowa State | L 14–38 | 51% | −51 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Missouri | L 31–42 | 28% | −28 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5–7 | 7.1 | −2.1 | 1–2 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Fresno State | W 31–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 1 | vs Wagner | W 46–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Missouri | L 31–42 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 4 | vs West Virginia | W 41–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 5 | vs Cincinnati | L 34–37 | 70% | −70 |
| Week 6 | @ UCF | W 27–20 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 7 | @ Texas Tech | L 17–42 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 9 | vs Kansas State | L 17–42 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 10 | vs Oklahoma State | W 38–21 | 84% | +17 |
| Week 11 | @ Arizona | L 20–24 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 13 | @ Iowa State | L 14–38 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 14 | vs Utah | L 21–31 | 80% | −80 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12:
Arizona, 
Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, 
Cincinnati, 
Colorado, 
Houston, 
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, 
Texas Tech, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
How many wins does Kansas have in 2026?
1–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.0 wins.
Was Kansas lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −1.0 wins of luck, the 11th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Kansas’s luckiest season?
2026: 1–2 from play worth 2.0 wins, −1.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 5–7 from play worth 7.1 (−2.1).