luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025

Wagner at Kansas, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Kansas beat Wagner 46–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Kansas was a 100% favorite.

Final

Wagner Seahawks 7
Kansas Jayhawks 46

August 29, 2025 · Memorial Stadium · Closing line: Kansas −45.5

Luck index 0 Kansas about even · 0 Wagner

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wagner wins 0, Kansas wins 10.

  1. 1 WAG 6 KU 48
  2. 2 WAG 3 KU 52
  3. 3 WAG 0 KU 52
  4. 4 WAG 0 KU 56
  5. 5 WAG 7 KU 66
  6. 6 WAG 3 KU 66
  7. 7 WAG 0 KU 66
  8. 8 WAG 0 KU 70
  9. 9 WAG 0 KU 73
  10. 10 WAG 0 KU 79

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wagner wins 0% of them, Kansas 100%. The line is what actually happened: Kansas by 39.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wagner by 17+0.0%
Wagner by 9–160.0%
Wagner by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Kansas by 1–80.1%
Kansas by 9–160.7%
Kansas by 17+99.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to Kansas: the final margin was Kansas by 39, without the luck Kansas by 37.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Wagner 9 for 55 yards, Kansas 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:03 Delay of Game on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KU +1.0 pts
Q1 9:36 Delay of Game on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KU +0.7 pts
Q1 8:26 Penalty on Kansas, 0 yards 0% WAG 0.0 pts
Q1 8:26 Penalty on Kansas, 10 yards 0% WAG +0.6 pts
Q1 4:14 Penalty on Kansas, 10 yards 0% WAG +0.6 pts
Q2 8:51 Holding on Wagner, 0 yards 0% KU 0.0 pts
Q2 8:35 Holding on Wagner, 10 yards 0% KU +1.3 pts
Q2 1:29 Illegal Substitution on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KU +0.1 pts
Q2 1:18 Pass Interference on Wagner, 15 yards 0% KU +0.3 pts
Q3 12:31 Delay of Game on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KU +0.8 pts
Q3 9:43 Offside on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KU +0.5 pts
Q4 9:48 Delay of Game on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KU +0.4 pts
Q4 8:15 Illegal Formation on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAG +0.7 pts
Q4 6:02 False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAG +0.6 pts
Q4 1:45 Penalty on Kansas, 10 yards 0% WAG +0.6 pts

When it happened

Kansas’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kansas was ahead in it, below while Wagner was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:51 Wagner was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% KU WAG: Punt
2 Q1 10:03 Delay of Game on Wagner, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% KU KU: Punt
3 Q1 9:17 Wagner was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +0% KU WAG: Punt
4 Q1 7:40 Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +0% WAG KU: Punt
5 Q1 6:57 Wagner was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +0% KU WAG: Punt
6 Q1 4:14 Penalty on Kansas, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% WAG WAG: Punt
7 Q2 13:06 Kansas’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% KU KU: Punt
8 Q2 8:35 Holding on Wagner, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% KU KU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wagner 0% · Kansas 100%

Final margin
Kansas by 39
Luck in points
1.4 for Kansas
Luck-adjusted margin
Kansas by 37.6
Replay with same day's form
Wagner 0% · Kansas 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Wagner · Kansas

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