luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

North Dakota at Kansas State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Kansas State beat North Dakota 38–35, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas State wins 9 of 10. North Dakota had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to North Dakota.

Before kickoff Kansas State was a 96% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:05 left): Kansas State was stopped on 4th & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to North Dakota.

Final

North Dakota Fighting Hawks 35
Kansas State Wildcats 38

August 30, 2025 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Closing line: Kansas State −27.5

Luck index +8 Kansas State about even · −8 North Dakota

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Dakota wins 1, Kansas State wins 9.

  1. 1 UND 31 KSU 22
  2. 2 UND 14 KSU 17
  3. 3 UND 31 KSU 38
  4. 4 UND 24 KSU 35
  5. 5 UND 34 KSU 49
  6. 6 UND 10 KSU 30
  7. 7 UND 7 KSU 31
  8. 8 UND 14 KSU 42
  9. 9 UND 10 KSU 45
  10. 10 UND 10 KSU 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Dakota wins 8% of them, Kansas State 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kansas State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Dakota by 17+0.7%
North Dakota by 9–161.9%
North Dakota by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation0.9%
Kansas State by 1–812.2%
Kansas State by 9–1616.0%
Kansas State by 17+63.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to North Dakota: the final margin was Kansas State by 3, without the luck Kansas State by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: North Dakota 4 for 30 yards, Kansas State 2 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:55 False Start on North Dakota, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KSU +0.7 pts
Q2 2:25 False Start on North Dakota, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UND 0.0 pts
Q2 1:11 Face Mask on Kansas State, 16 yards +1% UND +0.9 pts
Q3 0:48 Pass Interference on North Dakota, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% KSU +4.7 pts
Q4 5:29 Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yards +5% UND +0.8 pts
Q4 1:58 False Start on North Dakota, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KSU +0.2 pts

When it happened

Kansas State’s chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kansas State was ahead in it, below while North Dakota was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 11:32 North Dakota converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% UND UND: Touchdown
2 Q4 9:09 Kansas State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +4% UND KSU: Punt
3 Q4 7:31 North Dakota converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +4% UND UND: Touchdown
4 Q4 5:44 North Dakota converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% UND UND: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:29 Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% UND UND: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:10 Kansas State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% UND KSU: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:05 Kansas State was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% UND KSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:11 North Dakota was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% KSU UND: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Dakota 12% · Kansas State 88%

Final margin
Kansas State by 3
Luck in points
4.0 for North Dakota
Luck-adjusted margin
Kansas State by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
North Dakota 8% · Kansas State 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · North Dakota · Kansas State

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