Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Utah at UCLA, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah beat UCLA 43–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was a 66% favorite.
Final
 Utah Utes | 43 |
|---|---|
 UCLA Bruins | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Utah lucky · −28 UCLA
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Utah wins 7, UCLA wins 3.
- 1 UTAH 41 UCLA 7
- 2 UTAH 31 UCLA 9
- 3 UTAH 23 UCLA 5
- 4 UTAH 34 UCLA 21
- 5 UTAH 31 UCLA 21
- 6 UTAH 28 UCLA 22
- 7 UTAH 17 UCLA 14
- 8 UTAH 12 UCLA 14
- 9 UTAH 20 UCLA 27
- 10 UTAH 14 UCLA 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Utah wins 72% of them, UCLA 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 33.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Utah by 17+ | 28.4% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 22.1% |
| Level after regulation | 3.7% |
| UCLA by 1–8 | 14.9% |
| UCLA by 9–16 | 7.6% |
| UCLA by 17+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Bhaghani, 46 yds made · 63% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Utah 3 for 15 yards, UCLA 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:16 | False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UCLA +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:15 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards | +2% UTAH +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:12 | Holding on UCLA, 10 yards | +1% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Illegal Substitution on UCLA, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Illegal Touching on Utah, 0 yards | 0% UCLA 0.0 pts |
| Q3 12:30 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards | +1% UCLA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:28 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +1.1 pts |
When it happened
UCLA’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:44 | Utah converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:36 | UCLA converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +2% UCLA | UCLA: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 7:16 | UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% UTAH | UCLA: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 6:40 | UCLA was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +5% UTAH | UCLA: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:27 | Utah converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 5:15 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% UTAH | UTAH: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:12 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedIllegal Touching on Utah, 0 yardsJudgment calls | +2% UCLA | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 11:21 | Utah converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +3% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Utah 100% · UCLA 0%
- Final margin
- Utah by 33
- Luck in points
- 8.7 for Utah
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 24.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Utah 72% · UCLA 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Utah · 
UCLA
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa State vs Kansas State ISU 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- UT Martin at Oklahoma State OKST 27–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner