Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025
Nebraska vs Cincinnati, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Nebraska beat Cincinnati 20–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Cincinnati wins 8 of 10.
Nebraska won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Cincinnati it would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%. The numbers
Before kickoff Nebraska was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:04 left): Cincinnati converted 4th & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to Cincinnati.
Final
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 20 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +81 Nebraska very lucky · −81 Cincinnati
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nebraska wins 2, Cincinnati wins 8.
- 1 NEB 17 CIN 7
- 2 NEB 23 CIN 20
- 3 NEB 14 CIN 17
- 4 NEB 24 CIN 31
- 5 NEB 10 CIN 20
- 6 NEB 21 CIN 34
- 7 NEB 10 CIN 26
- 8 NEB 10 CIN 30
- 9 NEB 7 CIN 31
- 10 NEB 3 CIN 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Nebraska won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Cincinnati it would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for Nebraska: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.07 | better by 0.01 |
| Nebraska defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.03 | better by 0.00 |
| Cincinnati offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.09 | worse by 0.06 |
| Cincinnati defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.07 | worse by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nebraska wins 19% of them, Cincinnati 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nebraska by 17+ | 1.5% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 5.4% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Cincinnati by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Cincinnati by 9–16 | 24.7% |
| Cincinnati by 17+ | 32.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Rusnak, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- K. Cunanan, 52 yds made · 50% expected
- K. Cunanan, 22 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Nebraska 3 for 27 yards, Cincinnati 4 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:52 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEB +1.0 pts |
| Q1 10:33 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 13 yards | +5% CIN +2.5 pts |
| Q1 5:33 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:40 | False Start on Nebraska, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:00 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NEB +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:26 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NEB +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:41 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | +3% CIN +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Cincinnati’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:33 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +5% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:56 | K. Cunanan made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +5% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 7:05 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 10:25 | Nebraska was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +5% CIN | NEB: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 0:00 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 10:36 | Nebraska converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% NEB | NEB: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 8:13 | Cincinnati converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:04 | Cincinnati converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +10% CIN | CIN: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nebraska 30% · Cincinnati 70%
- Final margin
- Nebraska by 3
- Luck in points
- 6.7 for Nebraska
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cincinnati by 3.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Nebraska 19% · Cincinnati 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Nebraska · 
Cincinnati
More from Week 1 2025
- Iowa State vs Kansas State ISU 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- UT Martin at Oklahoma State OKST 27–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner