Week 1 2025 · August 23, 2025
Iowa State vs Kansas State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa State beat Kansas State 24–21, but the replays lean toward Kansas State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Iowa State.
Before kickoff Kansas State was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:19 left): Kansas State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 16 points of win probability to Iowa State.
Final
 Iowa State Cyclones | 24 |
|---|---|
 Kansas State Wildcats | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Iowa State very lucky · −69 Kansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iowa State wins 3, Kansas State wins 7.
- 1 ISU 24 KSU 7
- 2 ISU 23 KSU 14
- 3 ISU 20 KSU 17
- 4 ISU 19 KSU 21
- 5 ISU 21 KSU 27
- 6 ISU 14 KSU 23
- 7 ISU 17 KSU 28
- 8 ISU 21 KSU 38
- 9 ISU 7 KSU 28
- 10 ISU 14 KSU 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Iowa State wins 31% of them, Kansas State 69%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iowa State by 17+ | 5.3% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 10.3% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 15.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| Kansas State by 17+ | 23.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Konrardy, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
- K. Konrardy, 34 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Iowa State 2 for 15 yards, Kansas State 5 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:35 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 13 yards | +4% ISU +1.8 pts |
| Q1 3:01 | False Start on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Delay of Game on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:21 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards | +2% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | Intentional Grounding on Kansas State, 0 yards | 0% ISU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:07 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | 0% ISU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 9:53 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% ISU +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Kansas State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:01 | Kansas State fumbled and Iowa State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ISU | KSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 11:58 | Kansas State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +6% ISU | KSU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 9:33 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% KSU | KSU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 1:07 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedHolding on Iowa State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% ISU | ISU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 10:13 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% KSU | ISU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 9:53 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 8:19 | Kansas State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +16% ISU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:18 | Iowa State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +7% ISU | ISU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iowa State 61% · Kansas State 39%
- Final margin
- Iowa State by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Iowa State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa State by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Iowa State 31% · Kansas State 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Iowa State · 
Kansas State
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- UT Martin at Oklahoma State OKST 27–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- North Dakota at Kansas State KSU 38–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- Northern Arizona at Arizona State ASU 38–19 · replay 98% for the winner
- TCU at North Carolina TCU 48–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Stephen F. Austin at Houston HOU 27–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- South Dakota at Iowa State ISU 55–7 · replay 100% for the winner