Week 1 2025 · September 1, 2025
TCU at North Carolina, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
TCU beat North Carolina 48–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, TCU wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff TCU was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:57 left): Return touchdown by TCU, worth 11 points of win probability to TCU.
Final
 TCU Horned Frogs | 48 |
|---|---|
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 TCU about even · −1 North Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. TCU wins 10, North Carolina wins 0.
- 1 TCU 55 UNC 3
- 2 TCU 49 UNC 7
- 3 TCU 45 UNC 7
- 4 TCU 49 UNC 14
- 5 TCU 38 UNC 7
- 6 TCU 37 UNC 10
- 7 TCU 34 UNC 10
- 8 TCU 28 UNC 9
- 9 TCU 21 UNC 7
- 10 TCU 28 UNC 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
TCU wins 99% of them, North Carolina 1%. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| TCU by 17+ | 88.9% |
| TCU by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| TCU by 1–8 | 2.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| North Carolina by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Lemmermann, 32 yds made · 83% expected
- K. Lemmermann, 33 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: TCU 5 for 58 yards, North Carolina 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:54 | False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TCU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:12 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards | +4% TCU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 12:31 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards | +2% UNC +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:18 | False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNC +0.1 pts |
| Q2 3:57 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yards | +4% UNC +1.8 pts |
| Q3 9:30 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% UNC +2.2 pts |
| Q3 4:25 | Delay of Game on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TCU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:30 | Pass Interference on TCU, 13 yards, wiping out the play | 0% UNC +2.4 pts |
When it happened
North Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:01 | TCU was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% UNC | TCU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:12 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TCU | TCU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:45 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +2% TCU | UNC: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:31 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% UNC | UNC: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:18 | TCU was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFalse Start on TCU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% UNC | TCU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 8:30 | TCU converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% TCU | TCU: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 7:02 | TCU converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +1% TCU | TCU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 3:57 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by TCUSpecial teams | +11% TCU | UNC: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
TCU 100% · North Carolina 0%
- Final margin
- TCU by 34
- Luck in points
- 11.5 for TCU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- TCU by 22.5
- Replay with same day's form
- TCU 99% · North Carolina 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
TCU · 
North Carolina
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa State vs Kansas State ISU 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner