luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · August 23, 2025–September 1, 2025

Week 1 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

14 upsets in Week 1 2025. The biggest: Austin Peay beat Middle Tennessee 34–14 as 14% underdogs, and deserved it. 6 of 96 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Iowa State beat Kansas State 24–21 in a game it wins 31% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 1 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 10 of 14 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Austin Peay 34–14 @ Middle Tennessee 14% 92% Deserved
Tarleton State 30–27 @ Army 17% 13% Lucky
Rice 14–12 @ Louisiana 17% 75% Deserved
Florida State 31–17 vs Alabama 19% 92% Deserved
Central Michigan 16–14 @ San José State 23% 65% Deserved
South Florida 34–7 vs Boise State 29% 87% Deserved
Iowa State 24–21 vs Kansas State 41% 31% Lucky
LSU 17–10 @ Clemson 41% 59% Coin flip
California 34–15 @ Oregon State 42% 39% Lucky
Duke 45–17 vs Elon 44% 99% Deserved
Oklahoma State 27–7 vs UT Martin 44% 81% Deserved
San Diego State 42–0 vs Stony Brook 44% 100% Deserved
Texas Tech 67–7 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff 44% 100% Deserved
Miami 27–24 vs Notre Dame 44% 70% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 1 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Nebraska W 20–17 vs Cincinnati 19% +81
2 Iowa State W 24–21 vs Kansas State 31% +69
3 Washington State W 13–10 vs Idaho 33% +67
4 Ohio State W 14–7 vs Texas 38% +62
5 California W 34–15 @ Oregon State 39% +61
6 South Carolina W 24–11 vs Virginia Tech 51% +49
7 LSU W 17–10 @ Clemson 59% +41
8 Northern Illinois W 19–17 vs Holy Cross 59% +41
9 Indiana W 27–14 vs Old Dominion 61% +39
10 Tulane W 23–3 vs Northwestern 63% +37
11 Kent State W 21–17 vs Merrimack 63% +37
12 Central Michigan W 16–14 @ San José State 65% +35
13 Maryland W 39–7 vs Florida Atlantic 68% +32
14 UNLV W 38–31 vs Idaho State 69% +31
15 Miami W 27–24 vs Notre Dame 70% +30
16 Auburn W 38–24 @ Baylor 71% +29
17 Western Kentucky W 41–24 vs Sam Houston 71% +29
18 Utah W 43–10 @ UCLA 72% +28
19 Rutgers W 34–31 vs Ohio 75% +26
20 Liberty W 28–7 vs Maine 75% +25
21 Rice W 14–12 @ Louisiana 75% +25
22 Hawai'i W 23–20 vs Stanford 75% +25
23 New Mexico State W 19–3 vs Bryant 79% +21
24 UCF W 17–10 vs Jacksonville State 79% +21
25 SMU W 42–13 vs East Texas A&M 79% +21
26 Wake Forest W 10–9 vs Kennesaw State 79% +21
27 NC State W 24–17 vs East Carolina 81% +19
28 Oklahoma State W 27–7 vs UT Martin 81% +19
29 Delaware W 35–17 vs Delaware State 84% +16
30 Troy W 38–20 vs Nicholls 85% +15
31 South Florida W 34–7 vs Boise State 87% +13
32 Georgia Tech W 27–20 @ Colorado 88% +12
33 Tennessee W 45–26 vs Syracuse 88% +12
34 UAB W 52–42 vs Alabama State 89% +12
35 Arizona W 40–6 vs Hawai'i 90% +10
36 Utah State W 28–16 vs UTEP 90% +10
37 Texas A&M W 42–24 vs UTSA 91% +9
38 Louisiana Tech W 24–0 vs SE Louisiana 91% +9
39 Temple W 42–10 @ Massachusetts 91% +9
40 Michigan State W 23–6 vs Western Michigan 91% +9
41 Wyoming W 10–0 @ Akron 91% +9
42 Florida State W 31–17 vs Alabama 92% +8
43 Kansas State W 38–35 vs North Dakota 92% +8
44 Michigan W 34–17 vs New Mexico 93% +7
45 UL Monroe W 29–0 vs Saint Francis 93% +7
46 Iowa W 34–7 vs UAlbany 93% +7
47 Kentucky W 24–16 vs Toledo 94% +6
48 South Alabama W 38–21 vs Morgan State 94% +6
49 Texas State W 52–27 vs Eastern Michigan 95% +5
50 Bowling Green W 26–7 vs Lafayette 95% +5
51 Mississippi State W 34–17 @ Southern Miss 96% +4
52 Washington W 38–21 vs Colorado State 96% +4
53 Wisconsin W 17–0 vs Miami (OH) 97% +3
54 Arkansas State W 42–24 vs Southeast Missouri State 98% +2
55 Arizona State W 38–19 vs Northern Arizona 98% +2
56 Penn State W 46–11 vs Nevada 98% +2
57 Virginia W 48–7 vs Coastal Carolina 98% +2
58 Florida International W 42–9 vs Bethune-Cookman 98% +2
59 Tulsa W 35–7 vs Abilene Christian 99% +1
60 Purdue W 31–0 vs Ball State 99% +1
61 Minnesota W 23–10 vs Buffalo 99% +1
62 Duke W 45–17 vs Elon 99% +1
63 TCU W 48–14 @ North Carolina 99% +1
64 UNLV W 38–21 vs Sam Houston 99% +1
65 Missouri W 61–6 vs Central Arkansas 99% +1
66 UConn W 59–13 vs Central Connecticut 99% +1
67 Memphis W 45–10 vs Chattanooga 99% +1
68 Oregon W 59–13 vs Montana State 100% 0
69 Georgia W 45–7 vs Marshall 100% 0
70 Arkansas W 52–7 vs Alabama A&M 100% 0
71 Pittsburgh W 61–9 vs Duquesne 100% 0
72 App State W 34–11 vs Charlotte 100% 0
73 Air Force W 49–13 vs Bucknell 100% 0
74 Houston W 27–0 vs Stephen F. Austin 100% 0
75 Oklahoma W 35–3 vs Illinois State 100% 0
76 San Diego State W 42–0 vs Stony Brook 100% 0
77 Iowa State W 55–7 vs South Dakota 100% 0
78 Western Kentucky W 55–6 vs North Alabama 100% 0
79 James Madison W 45–10 vs Weber State 100% 0
80 Fresno State W 42–14 vs Georgia Southern 100% 0
81 Kansas W 31–7 vs Fresno State 100% 0
82 Illinois W 52–3 vs Western Illinois 100% 0
83 Kansas W 46–7 vs Wagner 100% 0
84 Navy W 52–7 vs VMI 100% 0
85 Boston College W 66–10 vs Fordham 100% 0
86 West Virginia W 45–3 vs Robert Morris 100% 0
87 Louisville W 51–17 vs Eastern Kentucky 100% 0
88 Florida W 55–0 vs Long Island University 100% 0
89 Vanderbilt W 45–3 vs Charleston Southern 100% 0
90 USC W 73–13 vs Missouri State 100% 0
91 Texas Tech W 67–7 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff 100% 0
92 Ole Miss W 63–7 vs Georgia State 100% 0
93 BYU W 69–0 vs Portland State 100% 0
94 North Texas W 51–0 vs Lamar 100% 0
95 Fresno State L 7–31 @ Kansas 0% 0
96 Missouri State L 13–73 @ USC 0% 0
97 Georgia State L 7–63 @ Ole Miss 0% 0
98 Georgia Southern L 14–42 @ Fresno State 0% 0
99 Charlotte L 11–34 vs App State 0% 0
100 Marshall L 7–45 @ Georgia 0% 0
101 Sam Houston L 21–38 vs UNLV 1% −1
102 North Carolina L 14–48 vs TCU 1% −1
103 Buffalo L 10–23 @ Minnesota 1% −1
104 Ball State L 0–31 @ Purdue 1% −1
105 Coastal Carolina L 7–48 @ Virginia 2% −2
106 Nevada L 11–46 @ Penn State 2% −2
107 Miami (OH) L 0–17 @ Wisconsin 3% −3
108 Colorado State L 21–38 @ Washington 4% −4
109 Southern Miss L 17–34 vs Mississippi State 4% −4
110 Eastern Michigan L 27–52 @ Texas State 5% −5
111 Toledo L 16–24 @ Kentucky 6% −6
112 New Mexico L 17–34 @ Michigan 7% −7
113 Middle Tennessee L 14–34 vs Austin Peay 8% −8
114 Alabama L 17–31 @ Florida State 8% −8
115 Akron L 0–10 vs Wyoming 9% −9
116 Western Michigan L 6–23 @ Michigan State 9% −9
117 Massachusetts L 10–42 vs Temple 9% −9
118 UTSA L 24–42 @ Texas A&M 9% −9
119 UTEP L 16–28 @ Utah State 10% −10
120 Hawai'i L 6–40 @ Arizona 10% −10
121 Syracuse L 26–45 vs Tennessee 12% −12
122 Colorado L 20–27 vs Georgia Tech 12% −12
123 Boise State L 7–34 @ South Florida 13% −13
124 East Carolina L 17–24 @ NC State 19% −19
125 Kennesaw State L 9–10 @ Wake Forest 21% −21
126 Jacksonville State L 10–17 @ UCF 21% −21
127 Stanford L 20–23 @ Hawai'i 25% −25
128 Louisiana L 12–14 vs Rice 25% −25
129 Ohio L 31–34 @ Rutgers 26% −26
130 UCLA L 10–43 vs Utah 28% −28
131 Sam Houston L 24–41 @ Western Kentucky 29% −29
132 Baylor L 24–38 vs Auburn 29% −29
133 Notre Dame L 24–27 @ Miami 30% −30
134 Florida Atlantic L 7–39 @ Maryland 32% −32
135 San José State L 14–16 vs Central Michigan 35% −35
136 Northwestern L 3–23 @ Tulane 37% −37
137 Old Dominion L 14–27 @ Indiana 39% −39
138 Clemson L 10–17 vs LSU 41% −41
139 Virginia Tech L 11–24 vs South Carolina 49% −49
140 Oregon State L 15–34 vs California 61% −61
141 Texas L 7–14 @ Ohio State 62% −62
142 Kansas State L 21–24 vs Iowa State 69% −69
143 Cincinnati L 17–20 vs Nebraska 81% −81
144 Army L 27–30 vs Tarleton State 87% −87