Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Colorado State at Washington, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Washington beat Colorado State 38–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Washington was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Colorado State Rams | 21 |
|---|---|
 Washington Huskies | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Washington about even · −4 Colorado State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado State wins 0, Washington wins 10.
- 1 CSU 20 WASH 23
- 2 CSU 13 WASH 21
- 3 CSU 17 WASH 28
- 4 CSU 7 WASH 23
- 5 CSU 17 WASH 35
- 6 CSU 9 WASH 30
- 7 CSU 17 WASH 42
- 8 CSU 13 WASH 42
- 9 CSU 14 WASH 49
- 10 CSU 6 WASH 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado State wins 4% of them, Washington 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado State by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 2.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 8.4% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Washington by 17+ | 72.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Colorado State 4 for 15 yards, Washington 5 for 24 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:40 | False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:00 | Face Mask on Washington, 2 yards | +1% CSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:11 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:52 | Illegal Substitution on Colorado State, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 9:03 | False Start on Washington, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | Illegal Formation on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WASH +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:06 | Pass Interference on Washington, 12 yards | +1% CSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:31 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:41 | False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Washington’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:40 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedFalse Start on Colorado State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% WASH | CSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:47 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +2% WASH | CSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 11:12 | Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 9:46 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 8:29 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +4% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 6:22 | Washington converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 4:18 | Washington converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:22 | Colorado State converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% CSU | CSU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado State 0% · Washington 100%
- Final margin
- Washington by 17
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for Washington
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 16.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado State 4% · Washington 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Colorado State · 
Washington
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner