Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025
Ohio at Rutgers, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Rutgers beat Ohio 34–31, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Rutgers was a 77% favorite.
Final
 Ohio Bobcats | 31 |
|---|---|
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Rutgers lucky · −26 Ohio
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ohio wins 3, Rutgers wins 7.
- 1 OHIO 35 RUTG 17
- 2 OHIO 29 RUTG 21
- 3 OHIO 17 RUTG 14
- 4 OHIO 21 RUTG 24
- 5 OHIO 17 RUTG 23
- 6 OHIO 20 RUTG 28
- 7 OHIO 16 RUTG 27
- 8 OHIO 7 RUTG 24
- 9 OHIO 21 RUTG 42
- 10 OHIO 17 RUTG 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ohio wins 25% of them, Rutgers 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rutgers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ohio by 17+ | 4.0% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 13.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| Rutgers by 17+ | 27.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Patel, 23 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Dellenbach, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Patel, 26 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Ohio 12 for 79 yards, Rutgers 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 5:17 | Illegal Block on Ohio, 12 yards | +1% RUTG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:17 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:17 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OHIO 0.0 pts |
| Q2 3:22 | False Start on Ohio, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% RUTG +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RUTG +0.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% RUTG +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:10 | Face Mask on Rutgers, 15 yards | +3% OHIO +2.9 pts |
| Q3 11:10 | Face Mask on Ohio, 15 yards | +1% RUTG +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:55 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:55 | Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% RUTG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OHIO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:07 | Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% OHIO +1.0 pts |
| Q4 6:41 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | +2% RUTG +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Rutgers’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:38 | Rutgers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +4% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:55 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +2% OHIO | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:52 | Rutgers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +3% RUTG | RUTG: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 7:03 | Ohio converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 14:52 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedJ. Patel made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +3% OHIO | OHIO: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:52 | Ohio converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 3:22 | Ohio converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedFalse Start on Ohio, 2 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by RutgersSpecial teams | +4% RUTG | OHIO: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 4:07 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedRutgers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +3% RUTG | RUTG: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ohio 18% · Rutgers 82%
- Final margin
- Rutgers by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for Ohio
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rutgers by 5.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Ohio 25% · Rutgers 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Ohio · 
Rutgers
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Wyoming at Akron WYO 10–0 · replay 91% for the winner