luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Holy Cross at Northern Illinois, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Northern Illinois beat Holy Cross 19–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Northern Illinois wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 19 points of win probability to Northern Illinois.

Before kickoff Northern Illinois was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:56 left): Holy Cross was stopped on 4th & 4, worth 16 points of win probability to Northern Illinois.

Final

Holy Cross Crusaders 17
Northern Illinois Huskies 19

August 30, 2025 · Huskie Stadium · Closing line: Northern Illinois −13.5

Luck index +41 Northern Illinois lucky · −41 Holy Cross

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Holy Cross wins 4, Northern Illinois wins 6.

  1. 1 HC 20 NIU 0
  2. 2 HC 28 NIU 17
  3. 3 HC 19 NIU 13
  4. 4 HC 10 NIU 7
  5. 5 HC 6 NIU 9
  6. 6 HC 3 NIU 7
  7. 7 HC 7 NIU 14
  8. 8 HC 13 NIU 24
  9. 9 HC 3 NIU 17
  10. 10 HC 3 NIU 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Holy Cross wins 41% of them, Northern Illinois 59%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northern Illinois by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Holy Cross by 17+5.7%
Holy Cross by 9–1612.3%
Holy Cross by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation1.7%
Northern Illinois by 1–826.2%
Northern Illinois by 9–1619.7%
Northern Illinois by 17+12.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.9 points to Northern Illinois: the final margin was Northern Illinois by 2, without the luck Holy Cross by 11.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Glass, 20 yds made · 94% expected
  • L. Palenzuela, 33 yds made · 82% expected
  • A. Glass, 39 yds made · 74% expected
  • L. Palenzuela, 41 yds missed · 70% expected
  • L. Palenzuela, 44 yds missed · 64% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Holy Cross 1 for 5 yards, Northern Illinois 7 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:11 False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HC +0.8 pts
Q2 10:30 Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards +4% HC +2.1 pts
Q2 3:17 Illegal Block on Northern Illinois, 8 yards +1% HC +0.5 pts
Q2 1:42 Illegal Substitution on Holy Cross, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NIU +0.3 pts
Q3 1:46 Delay of Game on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HC +0.6 pts
Q4 4:15 Delay of Game on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NIU +1.3 pts
Q4 2:30 False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HC +0.5 pts
Q4 2:29 False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HC +0.3 pts

When it happened

Northern Illinois’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Northern Illinois was ahead in it, below while Holy Cross was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:59 Holy Cross converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% HC HC: Punt
2 Q3 1:46 Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedDelay of Game on Northern Illinois, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% HC NIU: Punt
3 Q3 1:40 Blocked punt by Holy CrossSpecial teams +10% HC HC: Missed field goal
4 Q3 0:08 Holy Cross converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% HC HC: Missed field goal
5 Q4 4:54 Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% NIU NIU: Punt
6 Q4 2:20 Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedNorthern Illinois fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% NIU NIU: Punt
7 Q4 1:56 Holy Cross was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +16% NIU –
8 Q4 0:28 Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% NIU –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Holy Cross 96% · Northern Illinois 4%

Final margin
Northern Illinois by 2
Luck in points
13.9 for Northern Illinois
Luck-adjusted margin
Holy Cross by 11.9
Replay with same day's form
Holy Cross 41% · Northern Illinois 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Holy Cross · Northern Illinois

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