Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025
Lafayette at Bowling Green, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Bowling Green beat Lafayette 26–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Bowling Green wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Bowling Green was a 92% favorite.
Final
 Lafayette Leopards | 7 |
|---|---|
 Bowling Green Falcons | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Bowling Green about even · −5 Lafayette
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lafayette wins 0, Bowling Green wins 10.
- 1 LAF 3 BGSU 6
- 2 LAF 10 BGSU 17
- 3 LAF 3 BGSU 13
- 4 LAF 0 BGSU 12
- 5 LAF 0 BGSU 14
- 6 LAF 10 BGSU 27
- 7 LAF 0 BGSU 20
- 8 LAF 0 BGSU 22
- 9 LAF 0 BGSU 26
- 10 LAF 0 BGSU 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lafayette wins 5% of them, Bowling Green 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bowling Green by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lafayette by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Lafayette by 9–16 | 1.0% |
| Lafayette by 1–8 | 3.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Bowling Green by 1–8 | 16.4% |
| Bowling Green by 9–16 | 19.0% |
| Bowling Green by 17+ | 59.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Kleather, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Kleather, 56 yds made · 43% expected
- J. Kleather, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- J. Kleather, 35 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Lafayette 4 for 45 yards, Bowling Green 3 for 27 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:55 | Offside on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BGSU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 14:07 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 15 yards | +1% LAF +1.8 pts |
| Q2 6:35 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Lafayette, 25 yards | +1% BGSU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 7:14 | Illegal Block on Lafayette, 10 yards | 0% BGSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:19 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 7 yards | 0% LAF +1.7 pts |
| Q4 12:55 | Ineligible Downfield on Lafayette, 5 yards | 0% BGSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:47 | Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LAF +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Bowling Green’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:00 | Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +1% LAF | BGSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:51 | Lafayette converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% LAF | LAF: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 8:29 | Lafayette was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +1% BGSU | LAF: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 8:23 | Lafayette was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +1% BGSU | LAF: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 14:07 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% LAF | LAF: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 12:30 | Lafayette was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% BGSU | LAF: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 2:57 | Bowling Green was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +1% LAF | BGSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 3:39 | Lafayette converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% LAF | LAF: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lafayette 1% · Bowling Green 99%
- Final margin
- Bowling Green by 19
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Bowling Green
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bowling Green by 14.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Lafayette 5% · Bowling Green 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Lafayette · 
Bowling Green
More from Week 1 2025
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Wyoming at Akron WYO 10–0 · replay 91% for the winner
- Toledo at Kentucky UK 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Texas State TXST 52–27 · replay 95% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Wisconsin WIS 17–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Ball State at Purdue PUR 31–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Buffalo at Minnesota MINN 23–10 · replay 99% for the winner