Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025
Wyoming at Akron, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Wyoming beat Akron 10–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wyoming wins 9 of 10. Akron had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Akron.
Before kickoff Wyoming was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:22 left): Wyoming was stopped on 4th & 2, worth 8 points of win probability to Akron.
Final
 Wyoming Cowboys | 10 |
|---|---|
 Akron Zips | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Wyoming about even · −9 Akron
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wyoming wins 9, Akron wins 1.
- 1 WYO 35 AKR 0
- 2 WYO 30 AKR 3
- 3 WYO 22 AKR 0
- 4 WYO 21 AKR 3
- 5 WYO 22 AKR 6
- 6 WYO 26 AKR 13
- 7 WYO 13 AKR 3
- 8 WYO 7 AKR 0
- 9 WYO 16 AKR 13
- 10 WYO 10 AKR 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wyoming wins 91% of them, Akron 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wyoming by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wyoming by 17+ | 55.5% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 22.0% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 14.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Akron by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sandvik, 25 yds made · 91% expected
- O. Wiley, 49 yds missed · 55% expected
Penalties: Wyoming 7 for 35 yards, Akron 6 for 34 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:28 | Delay of Game on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AKR +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:40 | Ineligible Downfield on Wyoming, 5 yards | +1% AKR +0.3 pts |
| Q2 6:31 | Face Mask on Akron, 9 yards | +2% WYO +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:56 | Ineligible Downfield on Akron, 5 yards | +1% WYO +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:55 | Holding on Akron, 10 yards | +2% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:15 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AKR +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:05 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AKR +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:11 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AKR +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:54 | Illegal Block on Wyoming, 5 yards | +1% AKR +0.3 pts |
| Q4 8:54 | Delay of Game on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WYO +0.2 pts |
| Q4 8:34 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AKR +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:11 | Illegal Forward Pass on Akron, 0 yards | 0% WYO 0.0 pts |
| Q4 3:17 | Delay of Game on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Akron’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:00 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 7:43 | Akron was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +6% WYO | AKR: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:30 | O. Wiley missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 0 of 2 from 45+ before | +5% WYO | AKR: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 10:41 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 6:55 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedHolding on Akron, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% WYO | AKR: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 1:43 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% WYO | WYO: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 10:22 | Wyoming was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +8% AKR | WYO: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 9:02 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% WYO | AKR: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wyoming 94% · Akron 6%
- Final margin
- Wyoming by 10
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wyoming by 10.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Wyoming 91% · Akron 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Wyoming · 
Akron
More from Week 1 2025
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- UTEP at Utah State USU 28–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Mexico at Michigan MICH 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner