Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025
Central Michigan at San José State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Central Michigan beat San José State 16–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. San José State had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 10 points of win probability to San José State.
An off day for San José State: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Central Michigan it would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%. The numbers
Before kickoff San José State was a 77% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:13 left): D. Lynch missed a 33-yard field goal, worth 27 points of win probability to Central Michigan.
Final
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 16 |
|---|---|
 San José State Spartans | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Central Michigan lucky · −35 San José State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 7, San José State wins 3.
- 1 CMU 30 SJSU 0
- 2 CMU 37 SJSU 14
- 3 CMU 33 SJSU 14
- 4 CMU 31 SJSU 17
- 5 CMU 10 SJSU 0
- 6 CMU 17 SJSU 10
- 7 CMU 17 SJSU 14
- 8 CMU 14 SJSU 17
- 9 CMU 12 SJSU 21
- 10 CMU 10 SJSU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for San José State
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Central Michigan it would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for San José State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan offenseEPA per play gained | −0.06 | +0.00 | worse by 0.07 |
| Central Michigan defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.06 | worse by 0.06 |
| San José State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | +0.14 | worse by 0.01 |
| San José State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.06 | +0.08 | better by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Central Michigan wins 65% of them, San José State 35%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Central Michigan by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 26.5% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Level after regulation | 5.6% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 16.2% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 8.8% |
| San José State by 17+ | 5.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Graham, 51 yds missed · 52% expected
- C. Graham, 34 yds made · 81% expected
- C. Graham, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Graham, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- D. Lynch, 33 yds missed · 83% expected
- D. Lynch, 56 yds missed · 43% expected
Penalties: Central Michigan 7 for 33 yards, San José State 4 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:10 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 3 yards | +2% SJSU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:06 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SJSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 10:53 | Penalty on San José State, 9 yards | +3% CMU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 10:19 | Ineligible Downfield on Central Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% SJSU +2.3 pts |
| Q2 3:39 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Illegal Formation on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 10:39 | Illegal Shift on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SJSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:26 | Penalty on San José State, 15 yards | +6% CMU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Illegal Shift on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SJSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:46 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards | +6% CMU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 0:27 | Illegal Substitution on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SJSU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
San José State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:06 | San José State fumbled and Central Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% CMU | SJSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:19 | Ineligible Downfield on Central Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 5:26 | Penalty on San José State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% CMU | CMU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 14:56 | Central Michigan was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +13% SJSU | CMU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 12:46 | Holding on San José State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% CMU | CMU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 9:53 | Central Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +6% CMU | CMU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:13 | The game turned hereD. Lynch missed a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him | +27% CMU | SJSU: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:27 | San José State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedIllegal Substitution on Central Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% SJSU | SJSU: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Central Michigan 83% · San José State 17%
- Final margin
- Central Michigan by 2
- Luck in points
- 4.4 for San José State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Central Michigan by 6.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Central Michigan 65% · San José State 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Central Michigan · 
San José State
More from Week 1 2025
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- UTEP at Utah State USU 28–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Wyoming at Akron WYO 10–0 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Mexico at Michigan MICH 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner