Week 1 2025 · August 23, 2025
Idaho State at UNLV, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
UNLV beat Idaho State 38–31, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Idaho State had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Idaho State.
Before kickoff UNLV was a 98% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): Idaho State converted 3rd & 19, worth 10 points of win probability to Idaho State.
Final
 Idaho State Bengals | 31 |
|---|---|
 UNLV Rebels | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 UNLV lucky · −31 Idaho State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Idaho State wins 3, UNLV wins 7.
- 1 IDST 50 UNLV 31
- 2 IDST 65 UNLV 55
- 3 IDST 28 UNLV 24
- 4 IDST 41 UNLV 44
- 5 IDST 37 UNLV 44
- 6 IDST 17 UNLV 27
- 7 IDST 28 UNLV 41
- 8 IDST 44 UNLV 61
- 9 IDST 28 UNLV 52
- 10 IDST 27 UNLV 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Idaho State wins 31% of them, UNLV 69%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Idaho State by 17+ | 7.8% |
| Idaho State by 9–16 | 9.3% |
| Idaho State by 1–8 | 12.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.8% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 18.7% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 15.8% |
| UNLV by 17+ | 33.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sinatra, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- R. Villela, 30 yds missed · 86% expected
- R. Villela, 26 yds made · 89% expected
- R. Villela, 41 yds missed · 70% expected
Penalties: Idaho State 10 for 80 yards, UNLV 10 for 111 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Delay of Game on Idaho State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNLV +0.8 pts |
| Q1 11:10 | Pass Interference on Idaho State, 15 yards | +1% UNLV +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:58 | False Start on Idaho State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNLV +1.7 pts |
| Q2 10:52 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | +1% IDST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:07 | Holding on UNLV, 0 yards | 0% IDST 0.0 pts |
| Q2 7:12 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UNLV, 0 yards | 0% IDST 0.0 pts |
| Q2 6:29 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UNLV, 15 yards | +1% IDST +3.2 pts |
| Q2 5:46 | False Start on Idaho State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNLV +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:38 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yards | 0% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:31 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IDST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yards | +1% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:58 | Holding on UNLV, 28 yards | +4% IDST +1.7 pts |
| Q3 12:12 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yards | +3% UNLV +1.3 pts |
| Q3 10:45 | Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yards | +1% IDST +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:59 | Personal Foul on UNLV, 18 yards | +3% IDST +2.9 pts |
| Q3 2:22 | Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yards | +3% IDST +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:01 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yards | 0% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Pass Interference on UNLV, 5 yards | +3% IDST +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:19 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yards | +1% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:19 | Intentional Grounding on Idaho State, 0 yards | 0% UNLV 0.0 pts |
When it happened
UNLV’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:28 | Idaho State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +4% UNLV | IDST: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 14:10 | R. Villela missed a 30-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +5% IDST | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 14:58 | Holding on UNLV, 28 yardsJudgment calls | +4% IDST | IDST: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 13:31 | UNLV converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +4% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 12:12 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 9:14 | Idaho State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% IDST | IDST: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 15:00 | Idaho State converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedPass Interference on UNLV, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +10% IDST | IDST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 9:41 | UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +4% IDST | UNLV: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Idaho State 0% · UNLV 100%
- Final margin
- UNLV by 7
- Luck in points
- 9.5 for Idaho State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UNLV by 16.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Idaho State 31% · UNLV 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Idaho State · 
UNLV
More from Week 1 2025
- Idaho at Washington State WSU 13–10 · replay 33% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- UTEP at Utah State USU 28–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Wyoming at Akron WYO 10–0 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Mexico at Michigan MICH 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Colorado State at Washington WASH 38–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Northern Arizona at Arizona State ASU 38–19 · replay 98% for the winner
- Nevada at Penn State PSU 46–11 · replay 98% for the winner
- UNLV vs Sam Houston UNLV 38–21 · replay 99% for the winner