luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Idaho at Washington State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Washington State beat Idaho 13–10, but the replays lean toward Idaho: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Washington State.

Washington State won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Idaho it would win 81% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%. The numbers

Before kickoff Washington State was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:21 left): Washington State fumbled and Idaho recovered, worth 14 points of win probability to Idaho.

Final

Idaho Vandals 10
Washington State Cougars 13

August 30, 2025 · Gesa Field · Closing line: Washington State −16.5

Luck index +67 Washington State very lucky · −67 Idaho

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Idaho wins 7, Washington State wins 3.

  1. 1 IDHO 31 WSU 3
  2. 2 IDHO 20 WSU 0
  3. 3 IDHO 21 WSU 5
  4. 4 IDHO 16 WSU 3
  5. 5 IDHO 10 WSU 0
  6. 6 IDHO 13 WSU 7
  7. 7 IDHO 16 WSU 13
  8. 8 IDHO 10 WSU 13
  9. 9 IDHO 3 WSU 10
  10. 10 IDHO 0 WSU 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Washington State won on an off day

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Idaho it would win 81% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%.

48 points apart for Washington State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Idaho offenseEPA per play gained −0.16 +0.08 worse by 0.24
Idaho defenseEPA per play allowed −0.13 −0.00 better by 0.12
Washington State offenseEPA per play gained −0.13 +0.16 worse by 0.28
Washington State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.16 +0.11 better by 0.28

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Idaho wins 67% of them, Washington State 33%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Idaho by 17+19.2%
Idaho by 9–1622.5%
Idaho by 1–823.6%
Level after regulation5.9%
Washington State by 1–817.1%
Washington State by 9–168.4%
Washington State by 17+3.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to Washington State: the final margin was Washington State by 3, without the luck Idaho by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Pope, 44 yds missed · 65% expected
  • J. Stevens, 30 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Pope, 21 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Stevens, 32 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Idaho 5 for 47 yards, Washington State 6 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:16 Delay of Game on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IDHO +0.9 pts
Q1 6:21 Holding on Idaho, 10 yards +2% WSU +1.5 pts
Q1 5:04 False Start on Washington State, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% IDHO +0.2 pts
Q1 4:59 Offside on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WSU +0.9 pts
Q2 11:30 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington State, 0 yards 0% IDHO 0.0 pts
Q2 7:58 Personal Foul on Idaho, 7 yards +1% WSU +1.2 pts
Q2 2:13 Face Mask on Washington State, 15 yards 0% IDHO +1.2 pts
Q2 1:53 Holding on Idaho, 10 yards +1% WSU +0.9 pts
Q3 10:49 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Idaho, 15 yards +1% WSU +0.9 pts
Q3 9:35 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IDHO +0.8 pts
Q3 8:50 False Start on Washington State, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% IDHO +0.2 pts

When it happened

Washington State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington State was ahead in it, below while Idaho was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:16 C. Pope missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him +4% WSU IDHO: Turnover
2 Q2 11:30 Washington State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington State, 0 yardsJudgment calls +4% WSU WSU: Punt
3 Q3 7:38 Washington State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +3% WSU WSU: Punt
4 Q4 4:47 Idaho was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% WSU IDHO: Punt
5 Q4 2:21 Washington State fumbled and Idaho recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% IDHO WSU: Field goal
6 Q4 1:42 C. Pope made a 21-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +3% WSU IDHO: End of game
7 Q4 0:49 Washington State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% WSU WSU: Field goal
8 Q4 0:10 Washington State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% WSU WSU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Idaho 72% · Washington State 28%

Final margin
Washington State by 3
Luck in points
6.5 for Washington State
Luck-adjusted margin
Idaho by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Idaho 67% · Washington State 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Idaho · Washington State

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