Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Portland State at BYU, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
BYU beat Portland State 69–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, BYU wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff BYU was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Portland State Vikings | 0 |
|---|---|
 BYU Cougars | 69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 BYU about even · 0 Portland State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Portland State wins 0, BYU wins 10.
- 1 PRST 0 BYU 38
- 2 PRST 0 BYU 45
- 3 PRST 0 BYU 49
- 4 PRST 0 BYU 52
- 5 PRST 0 BYU 56
- 6 PRST 0 BYU 58
- 7 PRST 0 BYU 59
- 8 PRST 0 BYU 63
- 9 PRST 0 BYU 66
- 10 PRST 0 BYU 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Portland State wins 0% of them, BYU 100%. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 69.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Portland State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Portland State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Portland State by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| BYU by 17+ | 95.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Uribe, 57 yds blocked · 42% expected
- W. Ferrin, 25 yds made · 96% expected
- W. Ferrin, 56 yds made · 49% expected
Penalties: Portland State 4 for 20 yards, BYU 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:58 | Delay of Game on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:09 | Targeting on BYU, 15 yards | 0% PRST +1.0 pts |
| Q2 6:09 | False Start on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:09 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | 0% PRST +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:18 | Personal Foul on BYU, 15 yards | 0% PRST +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2:09 | Delay of Game on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:45 | False Start on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:43 | Delay of Game on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PRST +0.9 pts |
When it happened
BYU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:06 | Portland State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% BYU | PRST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:01 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% PRST | BYU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:48 | Portland State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +0% PRST | PRST: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:48 | Portland State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% BYU | PRST: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:37 | BYU fumbled and Portland State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% PRST | BYU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 4:49 | Portland State was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +0% BYU | PRST: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 3:58 | M. Uribe had a 57-yard field goal blockedKicks · 42% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ beforeDelay of Game on Portland State, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by BYUSpecial teams | +0% BYU | PRST: Punt |
| 8 | Q1 3:18 | Portland State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% PRST | PRST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Portland State 0% · BYU 100%
- Final margin
- BYU by 69
- Luck in points
- 11.3 for BYU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- BYU by 57.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Portland State 0% · BYU 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Portland State · 
BYU
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa State vs Kansas State ISU 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- Idaho at Washington State WSU 13–10 · replay 33% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- UT Martin at Oklahoma State OKST 27–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- North Dakota at Kansas State KSU 38–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- Northern Arizona at Arizona State ASU 38–19 · replay 98% for the winner