luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025

UT Martin at Oklahoma State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Oklahoma State beat UT Martin 27–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma State wins 8 of 10.

An off day for UT Martin: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Oklahoma State it would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%. The numbers

Before kickoff UT Martin was a 56% favorite.

Final

UT Martin Skyhawks 7
Oklahoma State Cowboys 27

August 28, 2025 · Boone Pickens Stadium · Closing line: UT Martin −2.5

Luck index +19 Oklahoma State about even · −19 UT Martin

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UT Martin wins 2, Oklahoma State wins 8.

  1. 1 UTM 30 OKST 17
  2. 2 UTM 10 OKST 7
  3. 3 UTM 14 OKST 16
  4. 4 UTM 5 OKST 10
  5. 5 UTM 21 OKST 30
  6. 6 UTM 3 OKST 15
  7. 7 UTM 13 OKST 28
  8. 8 UTM 10 OKST 27
  9. 9 UTM 10 OKST 31
  10. 10 UTM 10 OKST 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for UT Martin

Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Oklahoma State it would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%.

33 points apart for UT Martin: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
UT Martin offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.07 better by 0.00
UT Martin defenseEPA per play allowed +0.12 −0.01 worse by 0.13
Oklahoma State offenseEPA per play gained +0.12 +0.09 better by 0.02
Oklahoma State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.17 better by 0.10

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

UT Martin wins 19% of them, Oklahoma State 81%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma State by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UT Martin by 17+2.1%
UT Martin by 9–165.0%
UT Martin by 1–810.3%
Level after regulation4.4%
Oklahoma State by 1–823.0%
Oklahoma State by 9–1623.0%
Oklahoma State by 17+32.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.0 points to Oklahoma State: the final margin was Oklahoma State by 20, without the luck Oklahoma State by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Ward, 42 yds made · 68% expected
  • L. Ward, 39 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UT Martin 8 for 50 yards, Oklahoma State 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:02 Holding on UT Martin, 10 yards +3% OKST +1.3 pts
Q1 11:20 Personal Foul on Oklahoma State, 15 yards 0% UTM +1.6 pts
Q1 6:18 Pass Interference on UT Martin, 15 yards +3% OKST +1.6 pts
Q1 1:39 Personal Foul on Oklahoma State, 15 yards +4% UTM +1.6 pts
Q2 9:47 Illegal Substitution on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OKST +0.3 pts
Q2 7:30 Illegal Shift on UT Martin, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% OKST 0.0 pts
Q2 3:37 False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTM +0.5 pts
Q3 12:44 False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% OKST +1.1 pts
Q3 9:50 False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% OKST +0.6 pts
Q4 11:41 False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OKST +0.7 pts
Q4 4:36 False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OKST +0.5 pts
Q4 1:56 Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards 0% UTM +0.6 pts

When it happened

Oklahoma State’s chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oklahoma State was ahead in it, below while UT Martin was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:22 Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% OKST OKST: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:20 Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedPersonal Foul on Oklahoma State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% OKST OKST: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:34 UT Martin converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% UTM UTM: Punt
4 Q1 6:18 Pass Interference on UT Martin, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% OKST OKST: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:39 Personal Foul on Oklahoma State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% UTM UTM: Punt
6 Q2 12:22 UT Martin converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% UTM UTM: Punt
7 Q3 10:32 UT Martin was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% OKST UTM: Punt
8 Q3 7:33 Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% OKST OKST: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UT Martin 8% · Oklahoma State 92%

Final margin
Oklahoma State by 20
Luck in points
12.0 for Oklahoma State
Luck-adjusted margin
Oklahoma State by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
UT Martin 19% · Oklahoma State 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · UT Martin · Oklahoma State

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