luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025

Stephen F. Austin at Houston, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Houston beat Stephen F. Austin 27–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Houston wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Houston was a 94% favorite.

Final

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 0
Houston Cougars 27

August 28, 2025 · TDECU Stadium · Closing line: Houston −23.5

Luck index 0 Houston about even · 0 Stephen F. Austin

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stephen F. Austin wins 0, Houston wins 10.

  1. 1 SFA 3 HOU 10
  2. 2 SFA 2 HOU 17
  3. 3 SFA 0 HOU 18
  4. 4 SFA 0 HOU 21
  5. 5 SFA 0 HOU 24
  6. 6 SFA 3 HOU 30
  7. 7 SFA 0 HOU 31
  8. 8 SFA 0 HOU 34
  9. 9 SFA 0 HOU 37
  10. 10 SFA 0 HOU 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Stephen F. Austin wins 0% of them, Houston 100%. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stephen F. Austin by 17+0.0%
Stephen F. Austin by 9–160.0%
Stephen F. Austin by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Houston by 1–82.5%
Houston by 9–166.6%
Houston by 17+90.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.8 points to Houston: the final margin was Houston by 27, without the luck Houston by 16.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • E. Sanchez, 40 yds made · 72% expected
  • E. Sanchez, 43 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Stephen F. Austin 8 for 60 yards, Houston 8 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:26 Personal Foul on Stephen F. Austin, 5 yards +1% HOU +1.1 pts
Q1 1:11 Personal Foul on Houston, 5 yards 0% SFA +0.9 pts
Q1 0:57 False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SFA +0.7 pts
Q2 13:41 Offside on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SFA +0.3 pts
Q2 9:19 Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards 0% SFA +0.9 pts
Q2 8:23 Personal Foul on Houston, 15 yards +1% SFA +1.6 pts
Q2 5:52 Pass Interference on Stephen F. Austin, 15 yards +1% HOU +1.6 pts
Q3 12:20 Offside on Stephen F. Austin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 11:58 False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SFA +0.7 pts
Q3 5:24 Illegal Formation on Stephen F. Austin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.3 pts
Q3 3:35 Delay of Game on Stephen F. Austin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.4 pts
Q3 1:26 Delay of Game on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SFA +0.6 pts
Q4 14:59 Holding on Stephen F. Austin, 0 yards 0% HOU 0.0 pts
Q4 13:20 Holding on Stephen F. Austin, 10 yards 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 6:00 Holding on Houston, 10 yards 0% SFA +0.6 pts
Q4 3:00 Pass Interference on Stephen F. Austin, 15 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts

When it happened

Houston’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Houston was ahead in it, below while Stephen F. Austin was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:59 Houston was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +1% SFA HOU: Punt
2 Q1 10:36 Stephen F. Austin was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +1% HOU SFA: Punt
3 Q1 9:11 Houston was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +1% SFA HOU: Punt
4 Q1 2:41 Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +1% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q2 13:39 Stephen F. Austin converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +1% SFA SFA: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 12:11 Stephen F. Austin was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +1% HOU SFA: Punt
7 Q2 8:23 Personal Foul on Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% SFA SFA: Punt
8 Q2 3:41 Houston converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +1% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stephen F. Austin 1% · Houston 99%

Final margin
Houston by 27
Luck in points
10.8 for Houston
Luck-adjusted margin
Houston by 16.2
Replay with same day's form
Stephen F. Austin 0% · Houston 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Stephen F. Austin · Houston

More from Week 1 2025

Every week 1 game, 2025