luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Hawai'i at Arizona, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Arizona beat Hawai'i 40–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Arizona was an 81% favorite.

Final

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 6
Arizona Wildcats 40

August 30, 2025 · Arizona Stadium · Closing line: Arizona −13.5

Luck index +10 Arizona about even · −10 Hawai'i

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Hawai'i wins 1, Arizona wins 9.

  1. 1 HAW 21 ARIZ 14
  2. 2 HAW 10 ARIZ 12
  3. 3 HAW 10 ARIZ 16
  4. 4 HAW 31 ARIZ 41
  5. 5 HAW 6 ARIZ 19
  6. 6 HAW 0 ARIZ 16
  7. 7 HAW 10 ARIZ 30
  8. 8 HAW 5 ARIZ 28
  9. 9 HAW 7 ARIZ 35
  10. 10 HAW 3 ARIZ 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Hawai'i wins 10% of them, Arizona 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Hawai'i by 17+0.9%
Hawai'i by 9–162.4%
Hawai'i by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation0.9%
Arizona by 1–814.1%
Arizona by 9–1620.7%
Arizona by 17+54.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to Hawai'i: the final margin was Arizona by 34, without the luck Arizona by 38.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Matsuzawa, 34 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 35 yds made · 80% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 41 yds made · 70% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 52 yds made · 51% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Hawai'i 7 for 65 yards, Arizona 8 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:10 Illegal Shift on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HAW +1.7 pts
Q2 9:51 Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARIZ +0.8 pts
Q2 7:18 Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARIZ +0.9 pts
Q2 6:25 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards 0% HAW +0.9 pts
Q2 4:31 Delay of Game on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARIZ +0.5 pts
Q2 0:44 Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% ARIZ +1.4 pts
Q3 11:24 Intentional Grounding on Arizona, 11 yards +1% HAW +2.6 pts
Q3 11:24 Face Mask on Hawai'i, 15 yards 0% ARIZ +1.6 pts
Q3 1:11 False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARIZ +0.9 pts
Q4 14:54 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards 0% HAW +0.8 pts
Q4 12:32 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards 0% HAW +1.8 pts
Q4 8:37 Pass Interference on Arizona, 4 yards 0% HAW +1.6 pts
Q4 8:19 False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.6 pts
Q4 6:10 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards 0% HAW +1.4 pts
Q4 0:21 Face Mask on Hawai'i, 15 yards 0% ARIZ +1.5 pts

When it happened

Arizona’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arizona was ahead in it, below while Hawai'i was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:11 Arizona converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +1% ARIZ ARIZ: Punt
2 Q1 6:57 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% HAW HAW: Field goal
3 Q1 4:52 Hawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +1% ARIZ HAW: Field goal
4 Q1 4:10 Illegal Shift on Arizona, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% HAW HAW: End of half
5 Q1 3:31 Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +2% HAW ARIZ: Punt
6 Q1 1:35 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +1% HAW HAW: End of half
7 Q2 14:49 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% HAW HAW: End of half
8 Q2 0:44 Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% ARIZ ARIZ: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Hawai'i 0% · Arizona 100%

Final margin
Arizona by 34
Luck in points
4.5 for Hawai'i
Luck-adjusted margin
Arizona by 38.5
Replay with same day's form
Hawai'i 10% · Arizona 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Hawai'i · Arizona

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