Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
UTEP at Utah State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah State beat UTEP 28–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah State was a 59% favorite.
Final
 UTEP Miners | 16 |
|---|---|
 Utah State Aggies | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Utah State about even · −10 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTEP wins 1, Utah State wins 9.
- 1 UTEP 33 USU 26
- 2 UTEP 16 USU 20
- 3 UTEP 23 USU 31
- 4 UTEP 5 USU 16
- 5 UTEP 6 USU 21
- 6 UTEP 13 USU 31
- 7 UTEP 7 USU 29
- 8 UTEP 6 USU 32
- 9 UTEP 17 USU 48
- 10 UTEP 7 USU 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTEP wins 10% of them, Utah State 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah State by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTEP by 17+ | 0.7% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 5.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Utah State by 1–8 | 11.2% |
| Utah State by 9–16 | 16.8% |
| Utah State by 17+ | 61.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Rinker, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- T. Rinker, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Arrelola, 42 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: UTEP 6 for 45 yards, Utah State 11 for 68 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:56 | Ineligible Downfield on Utah State, 5 yards | +1% UTEP +0.3 pts |
| Q1 11:03 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.4 pts |
| Q1 10:52 | Holding on Utah State, 0 yards | 0% UTEP 0.0 pts |
| Q1 5:58 | Illegal Formation on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.3 pts |
| Q1 2:40 | Ineligible Downfield on UTEP, 5 yards | +1% USU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 11:16 | Illegal Substitution on UTEP, 0 yards · pre-snap | +1% USU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:05 | Pass Interference on Utah State, 11 yards | +3% UTEP +1.4 pts |
| Q3 11:23 | Delay of Game on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:37 | Roughing the Passer on UTEP, 15 yards | +4% USU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:35 | Illegal Block on UTEP, 15 yards | 0% USU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:35 | Offside on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:43 | Delay of Game on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:31 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | 0% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:28 | Delay of Game on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:30 | Personal Foul on Utah State, 15 yards | +1% UTEP +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:56 | Roughing the Passer on Utah State, 2 yards | +1% UTEP +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:33 | Ineligible Downfield on Utah State, 5 yards | 0% UTEP +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Utah State’s chance of winning
As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:45 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% UTEP | USU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:31 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +5% UTEP | USU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:14 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +3% USU | UTEP: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:21 | Utah State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% USU | USU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 13:50 | UTEP converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:05 | Pass Interference on Utah State, 11 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 11:23 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedDelay of Game on UTEP, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% USU | UTEP: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 10:37 | Roughing the Passer on UTEP, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% USU | USU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTEP 1% · Utah State 99%
- Final margin
- Utah State by 12
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for UTEP
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah State by 12.5
- Replay with same day's form
- UTEP 10% · Utah State 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
UTEP · 
Utah State
More from Week 1 2025
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
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