Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Maine at Liberty, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Liberty beat Maine 28–7, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Maine had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Maine.
Before kickoff Liberty was a 95% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:36 left): Liberty was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to Maine.
Final
 Maine Black Bears | 7 |
|---|---|
 Liberty Flames | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Liberty lucky · −25 Maine
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maine wins 3, Liberty wins 7.
- 1 ME 31 LIB 13
- 2 ME 14 LIB 6
- 3 ME 27 LIB 24
- 4 ME 10 LIB 13
- 5 ME 17 LIB 23
- 6 ME 14 LIB 24
- 7 ME 0 LIB 13
- 8 ME 10 LIB 27
- 9 ME 14 LIB 35
- 10 ME 10 LIB 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maine wins 25% of them, Liberty 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Liberty by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maine by 17+ | 4.3% |
| Maine by 9–16 | 6.5% |
| Maine by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 19.6% |
| Liberty by 17+ | 30.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Maine 2 for 20 yards, Liberty 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:03 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 15 yards | +1% ME +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:54 | Delay of Game on Maine, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:32 | Personal Foul on Maine, 15 yards | +4% LIB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:19 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ME +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:45 | Offside on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ME +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Liberty’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:31 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% ME | LIB: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:12 | Maine converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% ME | ME: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:24 | Maine fumbled and Liberty recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% LIB | ME: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 10:00 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +3% ME | LIB: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 5:48 | Maine was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +3% LIB | ME: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:17 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +4% ME | LIB: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 13:36 | Liberty was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +11% ME | LIB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 11:32 | Personal Foul on Maine, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maine 0% · Liberty 100%
- Final margin
- Liberty by 21
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Liberty
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liberty by 18.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Maine 25% · Liberty 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Maine · 
Liberty
More from Week 1 2025
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