Week 1 2025 · August 23, 2025
Sam Houston at Western Kentucky, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston 41–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Sam Houston had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Sam Houston.
Before kickoff Western Kentucky was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:58 left): Return touchdown by Sam Houston, worth 35 points of win probability to Sam Houston.
Final
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 24 |
|---|---|
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Western Kentucky lucky · −29 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sam Houston wins 3, Western Kentucky wins 7.
- 1 SHSU 30 WKU 10
- 2 SHSU 28 WKU 20
- 3 SHSU 33 WKU 30
- 4 SHSU 20 WKU 22
- 5 SHSU 24 WKU 28
- 6 SHSU 28 WKU 38
- 7 SHSU 17 WKU 31
- 8 SHSU 23 WKU 41
- 9 SHSU 17 WKU 42
- 10 SHSU 20 WKU 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sam Houston wins 29% of them, Western Kentucky 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 6.5% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 8.0% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 13.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 19.7% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 30.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Lopez, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- R. Lopez, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
- J. Cannon, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- J. Cannon, 42 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Sam Houston 7 for 51 yards, Western Kentucky 2 for 17 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:31 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:50 | Ineligible Downfield on Sam Houston, 5 yards | +2% WKU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 2:16 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WKU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:55 | Face Mask on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +2% WKU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:46 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% WKU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 6 yards | +1% WKU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on Western Kentucky, 2 yards | +2% SHSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:44 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WKU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 4:42 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +2% SHSU +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Western Kentucky’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:47 | R. Lopez missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him | +4% WKU | SHSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 11:11 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:29 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 5:53 | Sam Houston was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +6% WKU | SHSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 11:58 | Western Kentucky fumbled and Sam Houston recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Sam HoustonSpecial teams | +35% SHSU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:00 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +5% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 8:37 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 14:06 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +4% SHSU | SHSU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sam Houston 61% · Western Kentucky 39%
- Final margin
- Western Kentucky by 17
- Luck in points
- 18.8 for Western Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sam Houston by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Sam Houston 29% · Western Kentucky 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Sam Houston · 
Western Kentucky
More from Week 1 2025
- Maine at Liberty LIB 28–7 · replay 75% for the winner
- Bryant at New Mexico State NMSU 19–3 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- Delaware State at Delaware DEL 35–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- UTEP at Utah State USU 28–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- SE Louisiana at Louisiana Tech LT 24–0 · replay 91% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee APSU 34–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bethune-Cookman at Florida International FIU 42–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- UNLV vs Sam Houston UNLV 38–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- North Alabama at Western Kentucky WKU 55–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Missouri State at USC USC 73–13 · replay 100% for the winner