luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

North Alabama at Western Kentucky, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Western Kentucky beat North Alabama 55–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Kentucky wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Western Kentucky was a 96% favorite.

Final

North Alabama Lions 6
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 55

August 30, 2025 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Closing line: Western Kentucky −27.5

Luck index 0 Western Kentucky about even · 0 North Alabama

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Alabama wins 0, Western Kentucky wins 10.

  1. 1 UNA 21 WKU 34
  2. 2 UNA 21 WKU 42
  3. 3 UNA 14 WKU 41
  4. 4 UNA 10 WKU 42
  5. 5 UNA 10 WKU 45
  6. 6 UNA 16 WKU 55
  7. 7 UNA 10 WKU 52
  8. 8 UNA 0 WKU 47
  9. 9 UNA 14 WKU 65
  10. 10 UNA 0 WKU 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Alabama wins 0% of them, Western Kentucky 100%. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Alabama by 17+0.0%
North Alabama by 9–160.1%
North Alabama by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Western Kentucky by 1–81.1%
Western Kentucky by 9–162.9%
Western Kentucky by 17+95.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to Western Kentucky: the final margin was Western Kentucky by 49, without the luck Western Kentucky by 46.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • I. Vachon, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • I. Vachon, 47 yds made · 59% expected
  • J. Cannon, 46 yds made · 62% expected
  • J. Cannon, 43 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Alabama 7 for 75 yards, Western Kentucky 12 for 130 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:18 Face Mask on Western Kentucky, 15 yards 0% UNA +1.6 pts
Q1 4:30 Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards +1% UNA +1.2 pts
Q1 2:39 Pass Interference on North Alabama, 15 yards +1% WKU +2.0 pts
Q2 13:11 Holding on North Alabama, 10 yards 0% WKU +1.5 pts
Q2 8:01 Personal Foul on Western Kentucky, 15 yards 0% UNA +1.8 pts
Q2 2:42 Ineligible Downfield on Western Kentucky, 5 yards 0% UNA +0.5 pts
Q3 9:25 Pass Interference on North Alabama, 15 yards 0% WKU +1.8 pts
Q3 5:21 False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNA +1.4 pts
Q4 12:53 Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards 0% UNA +2.3 pts
Q4 12:40 Roughing the Passer on Western Kentucky, 15 yards 0% UNA +2.6 pts
Q4 8:21 Pass Interference on North Alabama, 15 yards 0% WKU +0.3 pts
Q4 7:50 Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards 0% UNA +0.7 pts
Q4 7:25 Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards 0% UNA +0.5 pts
Q4 7:25 False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNA +0.3 pts
Q4 4:56 Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% UNA +1.6 pts
Q4 4:11 Offside on North Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WKU +0.4 pts
Q4 4:05 Roughing the Passer on North Alabama, 15 yards 0% WKU +1.7 pts
Q4 1:10 Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% UNA +1.1 pts
Q4 0:24 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Alabama, 0 yards 0% WKU +1.9 pts

When it happened

Western Kentucky’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Western Kentucky was ahead in it, below while North Alabama was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:03 Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +1% UNA WKU: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:31 Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +1% WKU WKU: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:42 North Alabama converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +1% UNA UNA: Field goal
4 Q1 7:41 North Alabama converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +1% UNA UNA: Field goal
5 Q1 5:16 Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +1% UNA WKU: Punt
6 Q1 4:30 Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% UNA UNA: Field goal
7 Q1 2:39 Pass Interference on North Alabama, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% WKU WKU: Touchdown
8 Q1 2:15 I. Vachon made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +1% UNA UNA: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Alabama 0% · Western Kentucky 100%

Final margin
Western Kentucky by 49
Luck in points
2.3 for Western Kentucky
Luck-adjusted margin
Western Kentucky by 46.7
Replay with same day's form
North Alabama 0% · Western Kentucky 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · North Alabama · Western Kentucky

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