Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Abilene Christian at Tulsa, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulsa beat Abilene Christian 35–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tulsa wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Abilene Christian: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Tulsa it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff Tulsa was a 64% favorite.
Final
 Abilene Christian Wildcats | 7 |
|---|---|
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Tulsa about even · −1 Abilene Christian
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Abilene Christian wins 0, Tulsa wins 10.
- 1 ACU 3 TLSA 10
- 2 ACU 0 TLSA 13
- 3 ACU 9 TLSA 26
- 4 ACU 13 TLSA 33
- 5 ACU 0 TLSA 24
- 6 ACU 7 TLSA 34
- 7 ACU 7 TLSA 37
- 8 ACU 3 TLSA 37
- 9 ACU 10 TLSA 48
- 10 ACU 0 TLSA 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Abilene Christian
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Tulsa it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for Abilene Christian: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abilene Christian offenseEPA per play gained | −0.34 | +0.14 | worse by 0.48 |
| Abilene Christian defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.07 | worse by 0.02 |
| Tulsa offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | −0.04 | better by 0.14 |
| Tulsa defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.34 | +0.11 | better by 0.45 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Abilene Christian wins 1% of them, Tulsa 99%. The line is what actually happened: Tulsa by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Abilene Christian by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Abilene Christian by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Abilene Christian by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 4.6% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Tulsa by 17+ | 85.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Morgan, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- S. Morgan, 40 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Abilene Christian 3 for 25 yards, Tulsa 10 for 61 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:13 | Pass Interference on Tulsa, 15 yards | 0% ACU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 9:18 | Pass Interference on Abilene Christian, 15 yards | +1% TLSA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:40 | Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ACU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:40 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ACU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ACU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:03 | Holding on Tulsa, 3 yards | +1% ACU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:33 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ACU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:31 | Illegal Substitution on Abilene Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TLSA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:49 | False Start on Abilene Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TLSA +1.1 pts |
| Q3 1:39 | Intentional Grounding on Tulsa, 8 yards | 0% ACU +2.1 pts |
| Q4 9:32 | Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ACU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:15 | Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TLSA +0.4 pts |
| Q4 3:00 | Ineligible Downfield on Tulsa, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ACU +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Tulsa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:06 | Abilene Christian converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% ACU | ACU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 6:17 | Abilene Christian was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +7% TLSA | ACU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 3:23 | Tulsa converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +4% TLSA | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 1:34 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% TLSA | TLSA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 14:33 | Abilene Christian was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +4% TLSA | ACU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 13:56 | Abilene Christian was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% TLSA | ACU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 8:47 | S. Morgan made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +5% ACU | TLSA: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 13:57 | Tulsa converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% TLSA | TLSA: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Abilene Christian 1% · Tulsa 99%
- Final margin
- Tulsa by 28
- Luck in points
- 11.3 for Tulsa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulsa by 16.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Abilene Christian 1% · Tulsa 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Abilene Christian · 
Tulsa
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee APSU 34–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Central Arkansas at Missouri MIZ 61–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chattanooga at Memphis MEM 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner