Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Florida Atlantic at Maryland, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Maryland beat Florida Atlantic 39–7, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Florida Atlantic had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Florida Atlantic.
Before kickoff Maryland was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:38 left): Return touchdown by Maryland, worth 8 points of win probability to Maryland.
Final
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 7 |
|---|---|
 Maryland Terrapins | 39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Maryland lucky · −32 Florida Atlantic
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida Atlantic wins 3, Maryland wins 7.
- 1 FAU 31 MD 10
- 2 FAU 41 MD 31
- 3 FAU 27 MD 24
- 4 FAU 16 MD 18
- 5 FAU 34 MD 40
- 6 FAU 24 MD 34
- 7 FAU 27 MD 41
- 8 FAU 13 MD 31
- 9 FAU 10 MD 34
- 10 FAU 17 MD 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida Atlantic wins 32% of them, Maryland 68%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Maryland by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 8.3% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.4% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 20.1% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 17.4% |
| Maryland by 17+ | 27.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- S. O'Haire, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- S. O'Haire, 42 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Florida Atlantic 6 for 62 yards, Maryland 13 for 90 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:39 | Face Mask on Maryland, 15 yards | +2% FAU +1.5 pts |
| Q1 13:45 | Encroachment on Maryland, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% FAU +3.9 pts |
| Q1 13:03 | Delay of Game on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:10 | Offside on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FAU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 10:57 | Offside on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 9:52 | Delay of Game on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:10 | Offside on Maryland, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% FAU +4.4 pts |
| Q2 10:42 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:22 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:13 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:51 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:54 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards | 0% FAU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 12:34 | Face Mask on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | 0% MD +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:09 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 14 yards | 0% MD +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:09 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:56 | Roughing the Passer on Maryland, 15 yards | 0% FAU +2.1 pts |
| Q4 10:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | 0% MD +2.2 pts |
| Q4 9:58 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:54 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 8 yards | 0% MD +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Maryland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:39 | Face Mask on Maryland, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% FAU | FAU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 13:45 | Encroachment on Maryland, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +5% FAU | FAU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 13:19 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% FAU | FAU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 10:48 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% MD | FAU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 9:52 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedDelay of Game on Maryland, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% FAU | MD: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 6:38 | Return touchdown by MarylandSpecial teams | +8% MD | MD: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 5:48 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 14% expected | +3% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 3:10 | Offside on Maryland, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +7% FAU | FAU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida Atlantic 0% · Maryland 100%
- Final margin
- Maryland by 32
- Luck in points
- 20.1 for Florida Atlantic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maryland by 52.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida Atlantic 32% · Maryland 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Florida Atlantic · 
Maryland
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner