Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
UTSA at Texas A&M, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas A&M beat UTSA 42–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas A&M wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 92% favorite.
Final
 UTSA Roadrunners | 24 |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M Aggies | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Texas A&M about even · −9 UTSA
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTSA wins 1, Texas A&M wins 9.
- 1 UTSA 24 TA&M 17
- 2 UTSA 20 TA&M 23
- 3 UTSA 24 TA&M 31
- 4 UTSA 14 TA&M 24
- 5 UTSA 17 TA&M 31
- 6 UTSA 10 TA&M 27
- 7 UTSA 10 TA&M 31
- 8 UTSA 10 TA&M 36
- 9 UTSA 10 TA&M 41
- 10 UTSA 3 TA&M 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTSA wins 9% of them, Texas A&M 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTSA by 17+ | 0.5% |
| UTSA by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| UTSA by 1–8 | 6.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 13.2% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 20.9% |
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 56.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Petro, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- M. Petro, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
Penalties: UTSA 2 for 20 yards, Texas A&M 7 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:30 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% UTSA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 14:51 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% UTSA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 13:13 | Personal Foul on UTSA, 15 yards | +1% TA&M +2.0 pts |
| Q2 3:35 | False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:11 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +2% UTSA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:16 | Illegal Touching on Texas A&M, 7 yards | +1% UTSA +1.7 pts |
| Q3 3:44 | Delay of Game on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 0:22 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:53 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | 0% UTSA +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Texas A&M’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:21 | Return touchdown by Texas A&MSpecial teams | +4% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:39 | UTSA converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% UTSA | UTSA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 14:35 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +2% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 14:03 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% UTSA | TA&M: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 13:11 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% UTSA | UTSA: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 11:47 | UTSA was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% TA&M | UTSA: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 8:16 | Illegal Touching on Texas A&M, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +1% UTSA | UTSA: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 7:10 | Texas A&M converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +1% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTSA 0% · Texas A&M 100%
- Final margin
- Texas A&M by 18
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for UTSA
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas A&M by 20.2
- Replay with same day's form
- UTSA 9% · Texas A&M 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
UTSA · 
Texas A&M
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner