Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Northwestern at Tulane, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat Northwestern 23–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Tulane was a 66% favorite.
Final
 Northwestern Wildcats | 3 |
|---|---|
 Tulane Green Wave | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Tulane lucky · −37 Northwestern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northwestern wins 4, Tulane wins 6.
- 1 NU 45 TULN 24
- 2 NU 24 TULN 12
- 3 NU 14 TULN 7
- 4 NU 14 TULN 12
- 5 NU 17 TULN 20
- 6 NU 12 TULN 17
- 7 NU 14 TULN 23
- 8 NU 14 TULN 26
- 9 NU 3 TULN 21
- 10 NU 14 TULN 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northwestern wins 37% of them, Tulane 63%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northwestern by 17+ | 7.0% |
| Northwestern by 9–16 | 10.5% |
| Northwestern by 1–8 | 16.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 22.3% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Tulane by 17+ | 21.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Akers, 21 yds made · 93% expected
- P. Durkin, 22 yds made · 92% expected
- P. Durkin, 41 yds made · 69% expected
- P. Durkin, 31 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Northwestern 4 for 19 yards, Tulane 5 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:21 | Holding on Tulane, 17 yards | 0% NU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 13:21 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +3% TULN +1.5 pts |
| Q1 10:44 | Illegal Substitution on Northwestern, 0 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:55 | Pass Interference on Northwestern, 14 yards | +5% TULN +2.8 pts |
| Q2 12:43 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +2% NU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 0:49 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards | 0% NU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 6:15 | False Start on Northwestern, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 3:57 | False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 3:03 | Unnecessary Roughness on Tulane, 15 yards | 0% NU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Tulane’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:18 | Northwestern fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% NU | NU: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 13:21 | Holding on Tulane, 17 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Tulane, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TULN | NU: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 12:31 | Tulane converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:23 | Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +3% NU | TULN: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:09 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +2% NU | NU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 14:55 | Pass Interference on Northwestern, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +5% TULN | TULN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 11:10 | Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +2% NU | TULN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 8:23 | Tulane converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% TULN | TULN: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northwestern 0% · Tulane 100%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 20
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for Tulane
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulane by 15.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Northwestern 37% · Tulane 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Northwestern · 
Tulane
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner